How Bitcoin reacted to the Personal Income and Outlays on 1 October 2021

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 1 October 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for August 2021, against 1.1% in July 2021. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $47,685.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.83% lower, and an hour later 0.89% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.18% of its price, against 1.33% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.54x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.57x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.54x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.

What it means

Bitcoin's price fell 0.83 percent in the first fifteen minutes after the 1 October 2021 Personal Income release and 0.89 percent after one hour, with a high-to-low range of 1.18 percent in that hour compared with 1.33 percent beforehand. The volatility ratio reached 2.54x and the volume ratio 3.57x, both measured against an ordinary quarter hour the same day. Clometrix classifies the move as ordinary for this event, given the event's median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 69 releases since 2021.

It occurred 32 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window before a Fed decision that has historically produced stronger Bitcoin reactions to Personal Income data. Even so, the observed 2.54x volatility ratio exceeded the 1.81x median recorded for releases outside the two-week window before a Fed decision.

The record shows that Personal Income releases within two weeks of a Fed decision have carried a median volatility ratio of 2.13x, while those farther away sit at 1.81x. This instance therefore produced a larger price movement than its timing alone would have suggested, yet remained within the normal range of outcomes for the event type overall.

What is the Personal Income and Outlays?

Every Personal Income release for Bitcoin