Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.13x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.58x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,638.48 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.25% higher, and an hour later 3.04% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.38% of its price, against 0.99% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 August 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.9% for July 2022, against 0.5% in June 2022. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.13x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an exceptional reaction to the August 2022 Personal Income release. Volatility reached 4.13x its ordinary quarter-hour level, more than double the 1.80x median across 69 releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 7.58x against a typical 2.15x. The move therefore stood well clear of the event's established record.
Price action confirmed the scale. Ethereum traded at $1,638.48 at the 8:30 AM release. It rose 1.25 percent within fifteen minutes and 3.04 percent within the hour, while its high-low range widened to 4.38 percent of price from 0.99 percent in the preceding hour.
Timing did not explain the strength. The release fell 25 days before the September Federal Reserve decision. Personal Income releases inside the two-week window have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x, little different from the 1.77x recorded at other times. The 4.13x outcome therefore exceeded what the surrounding calendar alone would suggest. Traders watching future Personal Income releases may observe that proximity to policy meetings has not altered Ethereum's typical response to this event. The present case shows that larger moves can still occur outside the two-week windows before Federal Reserve decisions.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,687.00Close
1,509.1624h Change
-177.84 (-11.78%)24h High
1,706.4524h Low
1,486.8524h Volume
1.155M ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
26th August, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1635.26 | 1638.71 | 1634.70 | 1638.47 | 0.20% | 0.24% | 636 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1665.63 | 1.63% | 2.25% | 15,673 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1632.48 | 1638.71 | 1630.71 | 1638.47 | 0.37% | 0.49% | 2,995 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1665.00 | 1.59% | 2.25% | 38,927 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1634.72 | 1638.71 | 1630.71 | 1638.47 | 0.23% | 0.49% | 5,668 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1660.16 | 1.31% | 2.25% | 45,195 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1631.02 | 1638.71 | 1630.54 | 1638.47 | 0.45% | 0.50% | 9,178 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1658.89 | 1.23% | 2.25% | 50,480 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1629.13 | 1638.71 | 1624.10 | 1638.47 | 0.57% | 0.89% | 16,071 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1682.19 | 1634.71 | 1680.42 | 2.50% | 2.82% | 68,668 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1632.30 | 1638.71 | 1622.57 | 1638.47 | 0.38% | 0.98% | 36,330 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1706.45 | 1634.71 | 1688.29 | 2.95% | 4.20% | 112,973 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1656.16 | 1658.01 | 1620.50 | 1638.47 | -1.08% | 2.26% | 91,436 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1706.45 | 1634.71 | 1660.49 | 1.33% | 4.20% | 259,317 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1656.12 | 1667.42 | 1620.50 | 1638.47 | -1.08% | 2.81% | 120,486 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1706.45 | 1562.71 | 1569.37 | -4.40% | 8.42% | 498,097 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1664.05 | 1667.42 | 1620.50 | 1638.47 | -1.56% | 2.81% | 171,317 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1706.45 | 1538.23 | 1542.42 | -6.23% | 9.86% | 609,664 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1687.00 | 1691.57 | 1641.67 | 1656.12 | -1.86% | 2.95% | 177,270 ETH |
| During | 1656.12 | 1706.45 | 1562.71 | 1569.37 | -5.53% | 8.42% | 618,583 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1687.00 | 1691.57 | 1620.50 | 1638.47 | -2.96% | 4.20% | 297,756 ETH |
| During | 1638.48 | 1706.45 | 1486.85 | 1509.16 | -8.57% | 12.87% | 856,780 ETH |
