Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.68x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 12.11x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,340.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.8% lower, and an hour later 1.42% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.07% of its price, against 1.3% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.6% for August 2022, against 0.9% in July 2022. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.68x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an exceptional reaction to the 30 September 2022 Personal Income release, posting a volatility ratio of 4.68x against the 1.80x median recorded across 69 such events since 2021. Volume expanded to 12.11x, more than five times the typical 2.15x. The move occurred outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, where the historical median stands at 1.86x, and exceeded the 1.77x median seen for releases farther from policy meetings.
Price action showed Ethereum opening at $1,340.44 and falling 0.8 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.42 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range reached 2.07 percent in that hour, up from 1.3 percent beforehand. The Bureau of Economic Analysis printed Personal Income at 0.6 percent for August against 0.9 percent in July, arriving simultaneously with PCE at 0.3 percent and core PCE at 0.6 percent.
Traders reviewing the record may note that releases coinciding with slower income growth have occasionally produced outsized volatility even without immediate policy proximity. The data indicate that the magnitude here surpassed what the timing alone would imply, yet they offer no basis for projecting outcomes at the next release of the same series.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,332.61Close
1,332.8224h Change
0.21 (0.02%)24h High
1,373.1924h Low
1,313.3524h Volume
732,982 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
30th September, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1339.38 | 1343.23 | 1338.39 | 1340.53 | 0.09% | 0.36% | 1,882 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1322.10 | -1.39% | 2.07% | 19,715 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1332.00 | 1343.50 | 1331.88 | 1340.53 | 0.64% | 0.86% | 12,724 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1329.02 | -0.86% | 2.07% | 45,191 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1332.28 | 1343.50 | 1330.64 | 1340.53 | 0.62% | 0.96% | 13,819 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1322.91 | -1.33% | 2.07% | 53,587 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1331.92 | 1343.50 | 1330.64 | 1340.53 | 0.64% | 0.96% | 15,643 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1329.73 | -0.81% | 2.07% | 63,308 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1330.79 | 1343.50 | 1327.58 | 1340.53 | 0.73% | 1.18% | 20,668 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1327.48 | -0.98% | 2.07% | 71,806 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1339.62 | 1343.50 | 1326.01 | 1340.53 | 0.07% | 1.30% | 35,505 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1321.37 | -1.44% | 2.07% | 85,218 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1342.33 | 1344.68 | 1326.01 | 1340.53 | -0.13% | 1.39% | 56,465 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1342.82 | 1313.35 | 1340.55 | 0.01% | 2.19% | 150,184 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1339.07 | 1349.36 | 1326.01 | 1340.53 | 0.11% | 1.73% | 97,672 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1358.01 | 1.29% | 4.36% | 280,880 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1332.43 | 1349.36 | 1326.01 | 1340.53 | 0.60% | 1.73% | 149,433 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1350.97 | 0.78% | 4.36% | 328,293 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1332.61 | 1352.30 | 1320.12 | 1339.07 | 0.48% | 2.38% | 177,831 ETH |
| During | 1339.07 | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1358.01 | 1.39% | 4.36% | 378,552 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1332.61 | 1352.30 | 1320.12 | 1340.53 | 0.59% | 2.38% | 275,503 ETH |
| During | 1340.44 | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1332.82 | -0.57% | 4.36% | 457,479 ETH |
