How Chainlink reacted to the Personal Income and Outlays on 29 April 2019

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 April 2019 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for March 2019, against 0.4% in February 2019. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 0.71x, against 1.62x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.73x, against a typical 2.08x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $0.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.23% higher, and an hour later 1.69% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.81% of its price, against 3.6% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.62x across 17, against 1.59x across 52. This one came out 2 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 May rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.71x compares with 1.62x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Chainlink's usual price swing is 1.62x. This one was 0.44 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 1.62x. Thick line: this release, 0.71x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	0.4441	0.4441	0.4441	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0 LINK
5 minutes	0.4441	0.4441	0.4441	0.00%	0.00%	2.08%	0 LINK
10 minutes	0.4458	0.4441	0.4458	0.38%	0.38%	2.12%	1,501 LINK
15 minutes	0.446	0.4441	0.4451	0.22%	0.43%	2.94%	7,125 LINK
30 minutes	0.4474	0.4441	0.4469	0.63%	0.74%	2.96%	9,998 LINK
1 hour	0.4474	0.4349	0.4366	-1.72%	2.79%	3.52%	45,784 LINK
2 hours	0.4474	0.431	0.4366	-1.72%	3.67%	3.52%	78,687 LINK
4 hours	0.4474	0.431	0.4362	-1.81%	3.67%	3.52%	156,776 LINK
6 hours	0.4474	0.431	0.4372	-1.58%	3.67%	3.52%	188,814 LINK
8 hours	0.4546	0.431	0.4362	-3.62%	5.19%	1.30%	233,298 LINK
12 hours	0.4474	0.424	0.4335	-2.45%	5.23%	3.52%	283,837 LINK

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for Personal Income	Reaction
Bitcoin	1.50x	2.03x	Quiet
Ethereum	2.90x	1.77x	Strong
XRP	1.27x	1.81x	Quiet
BNB	1.57x	1.75x	Ordinary
TRON	1.00x	1.43x	Quiet
Cardano	2.19x	1.90x	Ordinary
Chainlink	0.71x	1.62x	Quiet
Litecoin	2.13x	1.64x	Strong
POL (prev. MATIC)	4.63x	1.60x	Exceptional

What is the Personal Income and Outlays?

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Every Personal Income release for Chainlink

Questions about this page

Is 0.71x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next Personal Income do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Chainlink moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.