The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 August 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for July 2023, against 0.3% in June 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Internet Computer moved
Internet Computer was at $3.470 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.29% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.58% of its price, against 1.15% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Internet Computer's volatility ratio was 1.92x, against 1.50x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.37x, against a typical 1.95x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Internet Computer less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.26x across 17, against 1.71x across 48. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.92x compares with 1.71x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 65 Personal Income releases since 2021, Internet Computer's median volatility ratio is 1.50x.
How it compares
Across 65 Personal Income releases since 2021, Internet Computer's usual price swing is 1.50x. This one was 1.28 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 1.50x. Thick line: this release, 1.92x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 3.47 | 3.46 | 3.47 | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 2,347 ICP |
| 5 minutes | 3.47 | 3.46 | 3.47 | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 2,696 ICP |
| 10 minutes | 3.47 | 3.46 | 3.47 | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.29% | 3,796 ICP |
| 15 minutes | 3.48 | 3.46 | 3.47 | 0.00% | 0.57% | 0.29% | 4,301 ICP |
| 30 minutes | 3.48 | 3.46 | 3.47 | 0.00% | 0.57% | 0.86% | 8,248 ICP |
| 1 hour | 3.48 | 3.46 | 3.46 | -0.29% | 0.57% | 1.14% | 32,705 ICP |
| 2 hours | 3.48 | 3.44 | 3.46 | -0.29% | 1.15% | 1.43% | 105,176 ICP |
| 4 hours | 3.48 | 3.36 | 3.39 | -2.36% | 3.45% | 1.71% | 370,313 ICP |
| 6 hours | 3.48 | 3.25 | 3.36 | -3.27% | 6.61% | 1.71% | 789,623 ICP |
| 8 hours | 3.50 | 3.36 | 3.39 | -2.65% | 4.00% | 1.44% | 672,564 ICP |
| 12 hours | 3.48 | 3.25 | 3.35 | -3.58% | 6.61% | 2.00% | 1.136M ICP |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.10x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.96x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.67x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.20x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.24x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.02x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.63x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.71x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.50x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.76x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.82x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.46x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.28x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.10x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.33x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.50x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 2.88x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 1.20x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.43x | - |
| Aptos | 1.00x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.92x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.09x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.94x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.92x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.50x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Internet Computer moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.