Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 August 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for July 2023, against 0.3% in June 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.96x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.54x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,710.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.26% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.43% of its price, against 1.5% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.96x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum posted a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release. Volume increased 1.54x against a typical 2.15x. The price remained unchanged fifteen minutes later and stood 0.26 percent lower after one hour, while the high-to-low range narrowed to 0.43 percent of spot from 1.5 percent in the prior hour.
Clustered releases
The figures arrived together with Personal Consumption Expenditures, core PCE, and both initial and continued claims. The combined print still produced no measurable response, consistent with the quiet classification recorded for this event.
Timing relative to policy
The release occurred nineteen days before the next Federal Reserve decision. Historical Personal Income prints show almost no difference in median volatility whether inside or outside the two-week window ahead of a meeting, at 1.86x versus 1.77x. This instance delivered a still lower ratio, so the record continues to indicate that proximity to policy meetings has not altered Ethereum's typical reaction to the series.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,702.13Close
1,651.8124h Change
-50.32 (-3.05%)24h High
1,729.0024h Low
1,630.0024h Volume
332,649 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
31st August, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1711.02 | 1711.03 | 1710.08 | 1710.10 | -0.05% | 0.06% | 149 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1710.77 | 1707.81 | 1708.06 | -0.12% | 0.17% | 797 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1710.94 | 1711.86 | 1710.08 | 1710.10 | -0.05% | 0.10% | 431 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1710.77 | 1707.81 | 1709.67 | -0.02% | 0.17% | 1,182 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1708.72 | 1711.86 | 1707.92 | 1710.10 | 0.08% | 0.23% | 880 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1710.96 | 1707.81 | 1708.29 | -0.11% | 0.18% | 1,725 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1711.83 | 1711.86 | 1707.92 | 1710.10 | -0.10% | 0.23% | 1,797 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1710.96 | 1707.81 | 1710.77 | 0.04% | 0.18% | 2,163 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1713.69 | 1714.08 | 1703.30 | 1710.10 | -0.21% | 0.63% | 9,968 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1711.44 | 1707.81 | 1708.24 | -0.11% | 0.21% | 3,643 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1712.67 | 1729.00 | 1703.30 | 1710.10 | -0.15% | 1.49% | 30,830 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1711.44 | 1704.02 | 1705.59 | -0.26% | 0.43% | 7,414 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1704.56 | 1729.00 | 1703.30 | 1710.10 | 0.32% | 1.49% | 44,784 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1711.44 | 1697.14 | 1702.17 | -0.47% | 0.84% | 25,860 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1705.94 | 1729.00 | 1703.30 | 1710.10 | 0.24% | 1.49% | 50,972 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1711.44 | 1677.38 | 1680.43 | -1.77% | 1.99% | 76,748 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1702.80 | 1729.00 | 1702.79 | 1710.10 | 0.43% | 1.52% | 60,204 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1711.44 | 1643.12 | 1660.25 | -3.00% | 3.99% | 160,324 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1702.13 | 1708.36 | 1697.29 | 1705.95 | 0.22% | 0.65% | 28,129 ETH |
| During | 1705.94 | 1729.00 | 1677.38 | 1680.43 | -1.52% | 2.99% | 127,719 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1702.13 | 1729.00 | 1697.29 | 1710.10 | 0.47% | 1.83% | 79,100 ETH |
| During | 1710.09 | 1711.44 | 1630.00 | 1651.81 | -3.53% | 4.76% | 253,548 ETH |
