ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 5th December 2025

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.86x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.28x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,103.52 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.22% higher, and an hour later 0.09% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.04% of its price, against 1.07% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 5 December 2025 at 10:00 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for September 2025, against 0.4% in August 2025. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 10 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.86x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the 5 December Personal Income release. Its volatility ratio reached 3.86x against the 1.80x median across 69 releases since 2021, while volume rose to 7.28x against a typical 2.15x. The price stood at $3,103.52 at 10:00 AM EST, climbed 1.22 percent within fifteen minutes, and showed a 2.04 percent high-to-low range in the following hour compared with 1.07 percent beforehand.

The figures arrived alongside Personal Consumption Expenditures at 0.3 percent and Core PCE at 0.2 percent for September, all printed at the same moment. Personal income itself printed 0.4 percent for the month, unchanged from August. The release fell five days before the Federal Reserve decision scheduled for 10 December.

Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed meeting have carried a median volatility ratio of 1.86x since 2021, nearly identical to the 1.77x median for releases at other times. This instance produced 3.86x, exceeding the pre-decision benchmark. The coincidence of three data points therefore coincided with a price range more than double the event norm.

Traders monitoring the next Personal Income release may note that clustered data arrivals can lift volatility well above the historical median even when the timing relative to policy decisions matches earlier cases.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

3,183.21

3,029.06

24h Change

-154.15 (-5.09%)

24h High

3,193.33

24h Low

2,983.08

24h Volume

511,360 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

5th December, 2025, 10:00AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	3102.99	3105.08	3102.02	3103.51	0.02%	0.10%	279 ETH
During	3103.52	3111.40	3103.52	3108.68	0.17%	0.25%	1,017 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	3102.65	3106.35	3100.00	3103.51	0.03%	0.20%	1,426 ETH
During	3103.52	3146.39	3103.52	3144.71	1.31%	1.36%	10,131 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	3093.46	3106.35	3088.28	3103.51	0.32%	0.58%	3,555 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	3103.52	3133.02	0.94%	1.72%	20,994 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	3095.19	3107.73	3088.28	3103.51	0.27%	0.63%	5,468 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	3103.52	3141.46	1.21%	1.72%	25,344 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	3101.33	3115.96	3082.75	3103.51	0.07%	1.07%	16,460 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	3103.52	3139.21	1.14%	1.72%	33,877 ETH

1 Hour
Before	3099.06	3115.96	3082.75	3103.51	0.14%	1.07%	29,190 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	3094.65	3106.34	0.09%	2.01%	50,806 ETH

2 Hours
Before	3128.25	3137.74	3082.75	3103.51	-0.80%	1.75%	62,835 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	3000.27	3032.78	-2.33%	4.99%	138,202 ETH

4 Hours
Before	3134.89	3143.46	3082.75	3103.51	-1.01%	1.93%	94,922 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	3000.27	3007.53	-3.19%	4.99%	199,150 ETH

6 Hours
Before	3155.18	3155.55	3082.75	3103.51	-1.66%	2.31%	153,967 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	2983.08	3022.52	-2.68%	5.54%	253,294 ETH

8 Hours
Before	3183.21	3193.33	3107.82	3134.88	-1.54%	2.68%	118,532 ETH
During	3134.89	3157.99	3000.27	3007.53	-4.23%	4.99%	294,072 ETH

12 Hours
Before	3183.21	3193.33	3082.75	3103.51	-2.57%	3.46%	213,453 ETH
During	3103.52	3157.99	2983.08	3029.06	-2.46%	5.54%	297,907 ETH