ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 26th September 2025

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.65x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.90x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,903.33 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.17% higher, and an hour later 0.31% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.02% of its price, against 1.04% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 September 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for August 2025, against 0.4% in July 2025. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.65x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the 26 September 2025 Personal Income release, with volatility reaching 4.65x against the 1.80x median across 69 releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 8.90x compared with the typical 2.15x. The price rose 1.17 percent in the first fifteen minutes from the $3,903.33 level and held a 0.31 percent gain after one hour, while the hourly high-low range doubled to 2.02 percent from 1.04 percent beforehand.

Release context and timing

The Bureau of Economic Analysis printed Personal Income at 0.4 percent for August, unchanged from July, alongside PCE at 0.3 percent and Core PCE at 0.2 percent. The three releases arrived together, so the measured volatility and volume ratios reflect their combined impact. This release fell 32 days before the October FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window where Personal Income events have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.86x.

The 4.65x ratio still exceeded the 1.77x median observed for releases at other times, indicating the move surpassed what timing alone would explain. Across the full record, Personal Income has produced only modest median volatility of 1.80x for Ethereum.

Implications for future releases

Traders monitoring the next Personal Income print may note that even a release matching the prior reading can generate outsized volatility when it coincides with the PCE components, regardless of proximity to a policy decision.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

3,903.37

4,028.42

24h Change

125.05 (3.10%)

24h High

4,068.30

24h Low

3,867.65

24h Volume

560,952 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

26th September, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	3897.45	3906.27	3897.45	3903.33	0.15%	0.23%	445 ETH
During	3903.33	3906.44	3886.00	3903.19	0.00%	0.52%	6,255 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	3884.10	3906.27	3884.10	3903.33	0.49%	0.57%	1,177 ETH
During	3903.33	3938.50	3886.00	3927.04	0.60%	1.33%	14,727 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	3887.41	3906.27	3875.71	3903.33	0.41%	0.78%	2,808 ETH
During	3903.33	3964.88	3886.00	3941.20	0.96%	1.99%	29,981 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	3880.47	3906.27	3875.71	3903.33	0.59%	0.78%	4,151 ETH
During	3903.33	3964.88	3886.00	3949.11	1.16%	1.99%	37,387 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	3906.00	3906.27	3875.71	3903.33	-0.07%	0.78%	7,177 ETH
During	3903.33	3964.88	3886.00	3937.23	0.86%	1.99%	45,025 ETH

1 Hour
Before	3890.69	3916.46	3875.71	3903.33	0.32%	1.04%	13,531 ETH
During	3903.33	3964.88	3886.00	3915.45	0.31%	1.99%	55,775 ETH

2 Hours
Before	3886.26	3916.46	3873.00	3903.33	0.44%	1.11%	29,815 ETH
During	3903.33	3985.41	3886.00	3940.68	0.95%	2.49%	100,293 ETH

4 Hours
Before	3936.37	3944.58	3873.00	3903.33	-0.85%	1.81%	63,624 ETH
During	3903.33	3994.96	3886.00	3981.62	1.97%	2.73%	151,347 ETH

6 Hours
Before	3940.57	3948.00	3873.00	3903.33	-0.95%	1.90%	145,491 ETH
During	3903.33	4068.30	3886.00	4054.40	3.73%	4.48%	222,868 ETH

8 Hours
Before	3903.37	3976.98	3867.65	3936.37	0.84%	2.75%	201,909 ETH
During	3936.37	3994.96	3873.00	3981.62	1.14%	3.05%	214,971 ETH

12 Hours
Before	3903.37	3976.98	3867.65	3903.33	0.00%	2.75%	265,533 ETH
During	3903.33	4068.30	3886.00	4028.42	3.11%	4.48%	295,420 ETH