ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 28th October 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.50x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.04x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,493.72 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.23% higher, and an hour later 2.56% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.86% of its price, against 0.84% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 October 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.6% for September 2022, against 0.6% in August 2022. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 2 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 5.50x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the 28 October Personal Income release, with volatility reaching 5.50x against the 1.80x median for this event since 2021. Volume expanded to 10.04x compared with the typical 2.15x, more than doubling the usual response. The release printed 0.6 percent for September, unchanged from August, and arrived alongside Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE figures.

Price action confirmed the scale of the move. Ethereum stood at $1,493.72 at the 8:30 AM release. It rose 1.23 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.56 percent within the hour, while the high-to-low range widened to 3.86 percent from 0.84 percent beforehand.

Timing placed the data five days before the Federal Reserve decision on 2 November. Releases in the two weeks before such decisions have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18 observations, close to the 1.77x median at other times. This instance reached 5.50x, exceeding what the pre-decision window alone would indicate. Across all 69 Personal Income releases since 2021 the median stands at 1.80x.

Traders reviewing the record note that Personal Income data can generate outsized moves even when headline prints match prior readings, particularly when multiple related releases coincide. The next instance of this event offers no fixed template, yet the pattern shows that deviations from the event median remain possible regardless of proximity to policy meetings.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

1,512.82

1,551.88

24h Change

39.06 (2.52%)

24h High

1,574.90

24h Low

1,479.82

24h Volume

832,026 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

28th October, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	1493.89	1495.39	1493.34	1493.71	-0.01%	0.14%	427 ETH
During	1493.72	1510.11	1479.82	1504.58	0.72%	2.01%	21,932 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	1494.99	1495.70	1491.46	1493.71	-0.09%	0.28%	2,758 ETH
During	1493.72	1517.55	1479.82	1506.95	0.88%	2.49%	40,173 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	1499.90	1501.00	1491.46	1493.71	-0.41%	0.64%	4,981 ETH
During	1493.72	1517.55	1479.82	1508.41	0.97%	2.49%	48,869 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	1496.00	1501.00	1491.46	1493.71	-0.15%	0.64%	6,966 ETH
During	1493.72	1517.55	1479.82	1512.06	1.21%	2.49%	55,514 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	1498.19	1501.00	1491.46	1493.71	-0.30%	0.64%	11,239 ETH
During	1493.72	1517.55	1479.82	1511.45	1.17%	2.49%	65,119 ETH

1 Hour
Before	1501.79	1504.07	1491.46	1493.71	-0.54%	0.84%	18,212 ETH
During	1493.72	1537.55	1479.82	1531.96	2.50%	3.75%	104,912 ETH

2 Hours
Before	1507.24	1508.99	1491.46	1493.71	-0.91%	1.16%	41,627 ETH
During	1493.72	1549.94	1479.82	1534.45	2.65%	4.52%	189,091 ETH

4 Hours
Before	1496.61	1510.01	1491.46	1493.71	-0.19%	1.23%	88,158 ETH
During	1493.72	1560.00	1479.82	1552.36	3.78%	5.14%	267,919 ETH

6 Hours
Before	1514.77	1515.67	1484.61	1493.71	-1.41%	2.05%	173,097 ETH
During	1493.72	1573.10	1479.82	1552.96	3.81%	5.93%	357,776 ETH

8 Hours
Before	1512.82	1525.32	1484.61	1496.61	-1.08%	2.67%	285,696 ETH
During	1496.61	1560.00	1479.82	1552.36	3.59%	5.14%	356,077 ETH

12 Hours
Before	1512.82	1525.32	1484.61	1493.71	-1.28%	2.67%	373,854 ETH
During	1493.72	1574.90	1479.82	1551.88	3.75%	6.04%	458,172 ETH