The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 August 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.1% for July 2023, against 0.2% in June 2023. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.96x, against 1.80x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.54x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,710.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.26% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.43% of its price, against 1.5% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.96x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the July Personal Consumption Expenditures release and the data that arrived alongside it. Volatility reached just 0.96 times normal in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM print, far below the 1.80 times median recorded for PCE events since 2021. Volume climbed only to 1.54 times against a typical 2.15 times. Under the 1.5 times threshold the market barely registered the release.
The price path confirmed the limited impact. Ethereum traded at $1,710.09 at the moment of release and showed no change fifteen minutes later.
The print occurred nineteen days before the September Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window in which PCE has historically produced comparable moves. Its 0.96 times volatility ratio still fell short of the 1.77 times median observed for PCE releases at other times.
Clometrix therefore classifies the episode as quiet for Ethereum on this event. Traders watching the next PCE release may note that even the PCE release and data alongside it can produce negligible price action when the figures align with subdued expectations.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.80x. This one was 0.53 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.80x. Thick line: this release, 0.96x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1710.77 | 1707.81 | 1708.06 | -0.12% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 797 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1710.77 | 1707.81 | 1709.67 | -0.02% | 0.17% | 0.10% | 1,182 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1710.96 | 1707.81 | 1708.29 | -0.11% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 1,725 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1710.96 | 1707.81 | 1710.77 | 0.04% | 0.18% | 0.23% | 2,163 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1711.44 | 1707.81 | 1708.24 | -0.11% | 0.21% | 0.63% | 3,643 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1711.44 | 1704.02 | 1705.59 | -0.26% | 0.43% | 1.49% | 7,414 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1711.44 | 1697.14 | 1702.17 | -0.47% | 0.84% | 1.49% | 25,860 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1711.44 | 1677.38 | 1680.43 | -1.77% | 1.99% | 1.49% | 76,748 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1711.44 | 1643.12 | 1660.25 | -3.00% | 3.99% | 1.52% | 160,324 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1729.00 | 1677.38 | 1680.43 | -1.52% | 2.99% | 0.65% | 127,719 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1711.44 | 1630.00 | 1651.81 | -3.53% | 4.76% | 1.83% | 253,548 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.10x | 2.06x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.96x | 1.79x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.67x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.20x | 1.78x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.24x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.02x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.63x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.71x | 1.88x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.50x | 1.61x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.76x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.82x | 1.67x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.46x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.28x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.10x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.33x | 1.74x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.50x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 2.88x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Aave | 1.20x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.37x | - |
| Aptos | 1.00x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.92x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.09x | 1.56x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.94x | 1.50x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.96x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.