How Bitcoin reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 31 August 2023

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 August 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.1% for July 2023, against 0.2% in June 2023. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.10x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.59x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $27,224.97 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.22% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.45% of its price, against 1.93% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.10x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin showed little movement after the 31 August 2023 PCE release. The price stood at $27,224.97 at the moment of publication. Fifteen minutes later the level remained unchanged, and one hour later the coin traded 0.22 percent lower. Its high-to-low range in the following hour measured 0.45 percent of spot, narrower than the 1.93 percent range recorded in the hour before the data.

Multiple Releases Arrived Together

The PCE print coincided with Personal Income and Outlays, Core PCE, and both initial and continued jobless claims. Bitcoin's volume ratio reached only 1.59x, well below the 2.55x median for PCE alone. The combined arrival appears to have produced no additional price range beyond what an ordinary quarter hour would generate that day.

The release fell 19 days before the Federal Reserve's September decision and therefore outside the two-week window in which PCE prints have historically generated larger Bitcoin moves. Across 18 prior releases inside that window the median volatility ratio stood at 2.13x, compared with 1.81x for the 51 releases outside it. This instance produced a 1.10x reading against the 1.81x benchmark for non-window events, confirming the subdued outcome relative to its timing. Traders reviewing the next PCE release can note that proximity to a policy meeting has coincided with stronger reactions in the record, while prints farther away have tended to leave narrower ranges. The current data set supplies no basis for assuming that pattern will hold for any specific future print.

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every PCE release for Bitcoin