The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 November 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.0% for October 2023, against 0.3% in September 2023. Prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.26x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.50x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $37,893.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.05% higher, and an hour later 0.42% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.23% of its price, against 0.4% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 13 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.26x compares with 2.13x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin showed a quiet reaction to the bundle of data that included the October Personal Consumption Expenditures print of 0.0 percent. The market barely registered the release under Clometrix criteria.
The price stood at $37,893.44 at the moment of publication. It rose 0.05 percent in the first fifteen minutes and fell 0.42 percent after one hour, with a high-to-low range of 1.23 percent compared with 0.4 percent in the prior hour. These moves coincided with the simultaneous release of Personal Income, Core PCE, and jobless claims figures.
The release arrived thirteen days before the Federal Reserve decision scheduled for 13 December. Releases of this type in the two weeks before a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x since 2021. The observed volatility ratio of 1.26x therefore fell short of the pattern normally associated with that timing. Traders watching the next PCE release may note that even proximity to a Federal Reserve meeting does not guarantee elevated volatility when the headline figure itself shows little change from the prior month.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.62 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.26x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 37910.36 | 37872.25 | 37890.30 | -0.01% | 0.10% | 0.06% | 31 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 37910.36 | 37853.43 | 37864.62 | -0.08% | 0.15% | 0.17% | 92 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 37910.36 | 37853.43 | 37889.86 | -0.01% | 0.15% | 0.27% | 169 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 37936.00 | 37853.43 | 37913.34 | 0.05% | 0.22% | 0.40% | 311 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 37966.94 | 37625.81 | 37725.85 | -0.44% | 0.90% | 0.40% | 1,272 BTC |
| 1 hour | 37966.94 | 37500.00 | 37733.99 | -0.42% | 1.23% | 0.40% | 3,124 BTC |
| 2 hours | 37966.94 | 37500.00 | 37645.34 | -0.66% | 1.23% | 0.45% | 4,631 BTC |
| 4 hours | 37966.94 | 37500.00 | 37690.00 | -0.54% | 1.23% | 0.70% | 6,806 BTC |
| 6 hours | 37966.94 | 37500.00 | 37743.83 | -0.40% | 1.23% | 0.97% | 8,183 BTC |
| 8 hours | 37966.94 | 37500.00 | 37690.00 | -0.07% | 1.23% | 1.55% | 10,536 BTC |
| 12 hours | 37966.94 | 37500.00 | 37883.86 | -0.03% | 1.23% | 1.55% | 12,036 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.26x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.94x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.92x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.99x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.45x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.71x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.19x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.02x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.98x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.94x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.00x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.67x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.00x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.00x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.67x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.66x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.49x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.68x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.99x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.67x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 0.50x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.04x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.26x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.