The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 April 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.7% for March 2026, against 0.4% in February 2026. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $76,344.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.12% lower, and an hour later 0.21% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.46% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.78x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.72x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 29 April rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.78x compares with 1.81x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Ordinary Volatility Response
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the PCE release, with a volatility ratio of 1.78x against the 2.09x median recorded across 69 events since 2021. The move aligned with Clometrix classification for this event type. Price action remained contained relative to the surrounding hour, and the outcome sat close to the 1.81x median observed for releases outside the two-week window before Federal Reserve decisions.
Release timing placed the data the day after the April Federal Reserve meeting and well clear of the June decision. That positioning matched the lower historical volatility ratios seen for PCE prints farther from policy dates. The result therefore followed the pattern already established in the record rather than deviating from it.
Volume rose sharply to 6.72x the baseline quarter-hour level, exceeding the typical 2.55x multiple for PCE releases.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.88 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.78x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 76500.00 | 76344.22 | 76414.96 | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 63 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 76511.22 | 76337.05 | 76359.91 | 0.02% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 349 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 76511.22 | 76337.05 | 76343.23 | 0.00% | 0.23% | 0.36% | 423 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 76511.22 | 76255.01 | 76255.01 | -0.12% | 0.33% | 0.47% | 511 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 76511.22 | 76254.00 | 76308.48 | -0.05% | 0.34% | 0.60% | 627 BTC |
| 1 hour | 76511.22 | 76159.45 | 76186.63 | -0.21% | 0.46% | 0.82% | 850 BTC |
| 2 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76354.20 | 0.01% | 0.75% | 0.82% | 1,988 BTC |
| 4 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76355.18 | 0.01% | 0.75% | 0.82% | 2,705 BTC |
| 6 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76281.25 | -0.08% | 0.75% | 1.08% | 3,154 BTC |
| 8 hours | 76669.14 | 75876.29 | 76355.18 | 0.37% | 1.03% | 1.50% | 5,109 BTC |
| 12 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76531.81 | 0.25% | 0.75% | 1.54% | 4,598 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.78x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 0.82x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.81x | - |
| BNB | 2.00x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 0.86x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.44x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.00x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.00x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.03x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.37x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.15x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.00x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.23x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.00x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.99x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | Not measured | 1.50x | - |
| Aave | 0.80x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.25x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.43x | - |
| Aptos | 0.00x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.99x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.78x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.