The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 January 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for December 2020, against 0.1% in November 2020. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.63x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.16x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,412.19 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.47% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.14% of its price, against 1.49% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 27 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.63x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the December PCE print of 0.4 percent, with volatility reaching only 0.63x against the 1.80x median for the event since 2021. Volume rose a modest 1.16x versus the usual 2.15x. The market barely noticed the release, which arrived together with personal income and core PCE data.
The price stood at $1,412.19 at the 8:30 AM release and stayed unchanged fifteen minutes later before edging 0.47 percent higher after an hour. Its high-to-low range widened only to 2.14 percent in that hour from 1.49 percent beforehand.
Placement two days after the Federal Reserve's January rate decision likely contributed to the subdued response. PCE releases in the two weeks before policy meetings have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, close to the 1.77x recorded at other times. This instance produced even less movement than those benchmarks would indicate.
Traders may note that acceleration in the spending gauge can still coincide with negligible price action when the release falls outside the immediate pre-decision window, though the record supplies no template for the next instance.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.36 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 0.63x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1417.16 | 1412.14 | 1417.16 | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 1,319 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1418.00 | 1412.14 | 1414.80 | 0.18% | 0.41% | 0.25% | 7,098 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1418.00 | 1407.80 | 1411.84 | -0.02% | 0.72% | 0.56% | 12,698 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1418.00 | 1407.80 | 1412.75 | 0.04% | 0.72% | 0.56% | 20,050 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1428.57 | 1407.80 | 1424.74 | 0.88% | 1.45% | 1.48% | 52,229 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1436.90 | 1406.66 | 1418.83 | 0.47% | 2.10% | 1.48% | 106,965 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1436.90 | 1371.33 | 1401.88 | -0.74% | 4.56% | 2.30% | 240,216 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1436.90 | 1365.00 | 1388.16 | -1.73% | 5.00% | 5.94% | 388,596 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1436.90 | 1321.49 | 1323.49 | -6.70% | 8.03% | 9.61% | 562,927 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1436.90 | 1345.00 | 1388.16 | 1.26% | 6.40% | 7.93% | 948,488 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1436.90 | 1313.12 | 1383.91 | -2.04% | 8.61% | 10.11% | 981,596 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.74x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.63x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.68x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 0.59x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.33x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.19x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 13.23x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 0.48x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.76x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.55x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.88x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.28x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.61x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.78x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.69x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.52x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.99x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.16x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.48x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.63x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
X
LinkedIn
Reddit
Telegram
WhatsAppDisclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.