The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 January 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for December 2020, against 0.1% in November 2020. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.74x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.89x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $37,378.77 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.66% higher, and an hour later 1.97% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.09% of its price, against 2.39% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 27 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.74x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the January 2021 PCE release. Its volatility ratio reached only 0.74x in the quarter hour after publication, well below the 2.09x median recorded across PCE events since 2021. Volume stayed similarly subdued at 0.89x against a typical 2.55x. The market registered almost no incremental movement once the figures arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE.
Price action remained contained. Bitcoin stood at $37,378.77 at the 8:30 AM release. It rose 0.66 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.97 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range expanded only modestly to 3.09 percent from 2.39 percent in the preceding hour. These moves stayed inside normal intraday variation for the period.
The timing placed the release two days after the Federal Reserve's January rate decision and 46 days before the next scheduled meeting. PCE prints that fall inside the two-week window ahead of a policy decision have shown a median volatility ratio of 2.13x. This instance produced less than half that level, illustrating how distance from the decision date can mute the response even when the data surprise is noticeable. Releases occurring well outside those windows have tended to leave smaller footprints regardless of the headline change.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.36 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 0.74x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 37490.00 | 37376.53 | 37488.29 | 0.29% | 0.30% | 0.11% | 71 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 37638.97 | 37376.53 | 37502.15 | 0.33% | 0.70% | 0.47% | 668 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 37638.97 | 37376.53 | 37632.60 | 0.67% | 0.70% | 1.32% | 1,042 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 37764.54 | 37376.53 | 37624.81 | 0.65% | 1.03% | 1.39% | 1,669 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 38531.90 | 37376.53 | 38250.03 | 2.28% | 3.00% | 2.36% | 6,144 BTC |
| 1 hour | 38531.90 | 37376.53 | 38113.38 | 1.93% | 3.00% | 2.36% | 10,948 BTC |
| 2 hours | 38531.90 | 36456.78 | 37213.30 | -0.44% | 5.39% | 3.53% | 21,974 BTC |
| 4 hours | 38531.90 | 35564.00 | 36126.60 | -3.47% | 7.70% | 6.58% | 40,430 BTC |
| 6 hours | 38531.90 | 34438.00 | 34438.00 | -8.54% | 10.62% | 15.99% | 58,701 BTC |
| 8 hours | 38531.90 | 35489.41 | 36126.60 | -3.79% | 7.90% | 14.89% | 91,624 BTC |
| 12 hours | 38531.90 | 33500.00 | 34766.39 | -7.51% | 13.06% | 15.99% | 94,125 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.74x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.63x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.68x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 0.59x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.33x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.19x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 13.23x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 0.48x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.76x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.55x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.88x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.28x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.61x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.78x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.69x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.52x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.99x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.16x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.48x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.74x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.