The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 October 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for September 2021, against 0.4% in August 2021. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $61,387.19 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.38% lower, and an hour later 0.44% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.35% of its price, against 1.39% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.92x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.85x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 3 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.92x compares with 2.13x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Ordinary reaction near a policy decision
Bitcoin registered an ordinary response to the September PCE release and the accompanying Personal Income and Core PCE prints. The price stood at $61,387.19 at 8:30 AM and moved 0.38 percent lower within fifteen minutes and 0.44 percent lower within the hour. The high-to-low range reached 1.35 percent of spot, little changed from the 1.39 percent recorded in the prior hour.
Measured volatility came in at 1.92x against the 2.09x median recorded across sixty-nine PCE releases since 2021. Volume expanded 2.85x, above the 2.55x benchmark for the event.
The release arrived five days before the Federal Reserve's November 3 policy decision. PCE prints in the two weeks before such meetings have produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio, above the 1.81x median observed at other times. The observed 1.92x ratio tracked closely with that pre-decision pattern. Proximity to Federal Open Market Committee meetings has coincided with larger Bitcoin reactions to PCE releases, even when the data themselves remain in line with recent trends.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.95 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.92x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 61500.00 | 61067.00 | 61297.87 | -0.15% | 0.70% | 0.53% | 346 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 61529.60 | 61047.18 | 61145.85 | -0.39% | 0.78% | 0.68% | 728 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 61529.60 | 61047.18 | 61159.90 | -0.37% | 0.78% | 0.75% | 924 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 61529.60 | 61046.61 | 61152.47 | -0.38% | 0.78% | 1.11% | 1,085 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 61529.60 | 60901.01 | 60974.39 | -0.68% | 1.02% | 1.11% | 1,538 BTC |
| 1 hour | 61529.60 | 60699.62 | 61116.67 | -0.44% | 1.35% | 1.39% | 2,509 BTC |
| 2 hours | 61529.60 | 60699.62 | 61024.99 | -0.59% | 1.35% | 1.39% | 4,450 BTC |
| 4 hours | 62980.00 | 60699.62 | 62804.12 | 2.26% | 3.62% | 1.45% | 12,286 BTC |
| 6 hours | 62980.00 | 60699.62 | 62162.99 | 1.25% | 3.62% | 1.75% | 15,542 BTC |
| 8 hours | 62980.00 | 60499.00 | 62804.12 | 3.58% | 3.94% | 2.84% | 19,401 BTC |
| 12 hours | 62980.00 | 60699.62 | 62070.86 | 1.10% | 3.62% | 2.84% | 21,819 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.92x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 0.95x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.81x | - |
| BNB | 1.00x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.84x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.72x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.83x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.00x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.00x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.18x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.94x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.05x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.18x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.92x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 2.03x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 0.86x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.91x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.03x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.80x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.99x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.31x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.92x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.