The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 September 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for August 2023, against 0.1% in July 2023. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.35x, against 2.06x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.33x, against a typical 2.54x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $26,951.70 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.16% higher, and an hour later 0.2% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.29% of its price, against 0.44% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.35x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
The price moved from $26,951.70 to a 0.16 percent gain after fifteen minutes and 0.2 percent after one hour, while the hourly range narrowed to 0.29 percent from 0.44 percent beforehand.
The subdued outcome aligns with the release falling outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision, a period when PCE prints have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 2.13x across eighteen cases versus 1.81x across the remaining fifty-one. This instance delivered 1.35x, below even the non-Fed timing benchmark, and arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE figures. The combined data therefore coincided with limited price action rather than an outsized move.
Traders reviewing the next PCE release may note that distance from policy meetings has historically coincided with smaller Bitcoin reactions, though the record supplies no expectation for any single future print. The September 2023 outcome simply extended that pattern without adding new magnitude.
How it compares
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.06x. This one was 0.66 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.06x. Thick line: this release, 1.35x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 26968.01 | 26940.36 | 26965.49 | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 72 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 26986.04 | 26940.36 | 26955.01 | 0.01% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 256 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 26999.00 | 26940.36 | 26998.99 | 0.18% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 377 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 26999.99 | 26940.36 | 26995.39 | 0.16% | 0.22% | 0.22% | 480 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 27013.68 | 26940.36 | 27001.00 | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.30% | 773 BTC |
| 1 hour | 27018.13 | 26940.36 | 27006.37 | 0.20% | 0.29% | 0.44% | 1,123 BTC |
| 2 hours | 27048.88 | 26665.16 | 26781.83 | -0.63% | 1.42% | 0.62% | 4,504 BTC |
| 4 hours | 27149.05 | 26665.16 | 26864.88 | -0.32% | 1.78% | 0.77% | 9,009 BTC |
| 6 hours | 27149.05 | 26665.16 | 26823.88 | -0.48% | 1.78% | 1.28% | 10,661 BTC |
| 8 hours | 27149.05 | 26665.16 | 26864.88 | -0.89% | 1.78% | 1.41% | 12,896 BTC |
| 12 hours | 27149.05 | 26665.16 | 26895.87 | -0.21% | 1.78% | 1.41% | 14,157 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.35x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.77x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 6.37x | 1.81x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.24x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.57x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 4.08x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 1.76x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 1.37x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.34x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 2.63x | 1.53x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.79x | 1.69x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.33x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.46x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.99x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 0.99x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 3.01x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 1.48x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.43x | - |
| Aptos | 1.97x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 2.96x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.47x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.35x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.