Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.94x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.77x, against a typical 2.52x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $78,713.70 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.57% lower, and an hour later 0.84% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.02% of its price, against 0.54% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 August 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for July 2026, against -0.1% in June 2026. Prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.94x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the August 2026 PCE release, with a volatility ratio of 3.94x against the 2.09x median recorded across 69 prior PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 4.77x its baseline quarter-hour level, well above the 2.55x typical for the event. The move exceeded the median 2.13x seen when PCE has arrived inside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision.
Price action showed an immediate but contained shift. Bitcoin stood at $78,713.70 at the 8:30 AM release and fell 0.57 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.84 percent within the hour. Its high-low range widened to 1.02 percent of spot in the post-release hour, double the 0.54 percent range observed in the preceding hour.
Timing offers context for the size of the move. This release landed twenty days before the September 2026 FOMC meeting and therefore outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision where PCE has historically produced larger Bitcoin swings. Yet the volatility ratio still surpassed the 1.81x median recorded for PCE releases farther from policy decisions. The outcome illustrates that distance from a rate decision does not preclude an outsized response when multiple data streams coincide.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.95 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 3.94x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78369.30 | -0.44% | 1.01% | 0.11% | 361 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78400.00 | -0.40% | 1.01% | 0.17% | 457 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78240.00 | -0.61% | 1.01% | 0.42% | 540 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78265.99 | -0.57% | 1.01% | 0.54% | 594 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78319.59 | -0.50% | 1.01% | 0.54% | 767 BTC |
| 1 hour | 78713.70 | 77913.19 | 78052.01 | -0.85% | 1.02% | 0.54% | 1,206 BTC |
| 2 hours | 78713.70 | 77913.19 | 78247.99 | -0.60% | 1.02% | 0.75% | 2,079 BTC |
| 4 hours | 78713.70 | 77632.58 | 78060.62 | -0.84% | 1.37% | 0.98% | 3,716 BTC |
| 6 hours | 78713.70 | 77632.58 | 78468.00 | -0.31% | 1.37% | 1.11% | 4,862 BTC |
| 8 hours | 79022.44 | 77632.58 | 78060.62 | -1.19% | 1.76% | 1.12% | 6,078 BTC |
| 12 hours | 79174.12 | 77632.58 | 78902.00 | 0.24% | 1.95% | 1.27% | 8,003 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.94x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.27x | 1.77x | Strong |
| XRP | 2.01x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.15x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.18x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 3.07x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 1.50x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 3.11x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.60x | 1.62x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 3.19x | 1.53x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.58x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 2.68x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 3.69x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 2.95x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 1.01x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 2.35x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.34x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.43x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.38x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 2.38x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.00x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 2.66x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 3.97x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.07x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 3.07x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 3.94x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.