Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.60x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.73x, against a typical 2.55x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $20,127.93 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.41% higher, and an hour later 1.09% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.92% of its price, against 0.44% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 October 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for September 2022, against 0.3% in August 2022. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 2 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 5.60x compares with 2.13x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.09x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the 28 October 2022 PCE release. Volatility reached 5.60x its baseline quarter-hour level that day, more than double the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded 4.73x against the 2.55x typical for the event. The outcome also exceeded the 2.13x median volatility seen when PCE arrives in the two weeks before a Federal Reserve decision.
Price action aligned with the volatility spike. Bitcoin stood at $20,127.93 at the 8:30 AM release. It rose 0.41 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.09 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range in that hour measured 1.92 percent of spot, against 0.44 percent in the prior hour. The print itself showed September PCE at 0.3 percent month-over-month, unchanged from August.
The release coincided with Personal Income and Core PCE figures, so the measured response reflects the combined arrival. Its timing, five days before the 2 November Federal Reserve meeting, placed it among the higher-impact window for PCE events, yet the 5.60x volatility ratio still surpassed that pre-decision median. Traders reviewing subsequent PCE prints may note that timing alone does not fully explain outlier moves of this scale.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 2.68 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 5.60x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 20292.52 | 20000.09 | 20213.95 | 0.43% | 1.44% | 0.09% | 2,571 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 20292.85 | 20000.09 | 20235.97 | 0.53% | 1.44% | 0.14% | 6,275 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 20292.85 | 20000.09 | 20194.01 | 0.33% | 1.44% | 0.31% | 8,778 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 20292.85 | 20000.09 | 20210.71 | 0.41% | 1.44% | 0.31% | 10,900 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 20292.85 | 20000.09 | 20209.78 | 0.41% | 1.44% | 0.31% | 14,746 BTC |
| 1 hour | 20386.00 | 20000.09 | 20348.25 | 1.08% | 1.89% | 0.43% | 25,014 BTC |
| 2 hours | 20588.88 | 20000.09 | 20489.50 | 1.76% | 2.86% | 0.61% | 57,644 BTC |
| 4 hours | 20705.51 | 20000.09 | 20642.03 | 2.49% | 3.41% | 0.77% | 92,036 BTC |
| 6 hours | 20750.00 | 20000.09 | 20648.79 | 2.52% | 3.61% | 1.34% | 119,895 BTC |
| 8 hours | 20705.51 | 20000.09 | 20642.03 | 2.59% | 3.41% | 1.53% | 133,408 BTC |
| 12 hours | 20750.00 | 20000.09 | 20589.79 | 2.24% | 3.61% | 1.53% | 160,099 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 5.60x | 2.06x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 5.50x | 1.79x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.93x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.89x | 1.78x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.65x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 2.07x | 1.51x | Strong |
| TRON | 3.46x | 1.42x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 3.72x | 1.88x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.71x | 1.61x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.53x | 1.67x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 3.02x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 2.81x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 4.53x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 2.56x | 1.74x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.15x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 3.02x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.56x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 3.16x | 1.37x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 1.94x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 2.69x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.93x | 1.56x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 2.37x | 1.50x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 5.60x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 2.09x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.