How Ethereum reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 23 December 2022

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 11.77x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 24.99x, against a typical 2.11x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,220.88 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.42% higher, and an hour later 0.37% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.8% of its price, against 0.5% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 23 December 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for November 2022, against 0.5% in October 2022. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 11.77x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.

What it means

Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the November PCE release. Volatility reached 11.77 times the normal quarter-hour range, more than six times the 1.80x median observed across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded 24.99 times against the 2.15x typical reading.

The print arrived 39 days before the Federal Reserve's next scheduled decision, placing it well outside the two-week window that normally precedes policy meetings. PCE releases in that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, nearly identical to the 1.77x median for releases at other times. The 11.77x outcome therefore exceeded what timing alone would have predicted. It rose 0.42 percent within fifteen minutes before closing the hour 0.37 percent lower, with the high-low range widening to 1.8 percent from 0.5 percent in the prior hour.

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every PCE release for Ethereum