The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 27 October 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for September 2023, against 0.3% in August 2023. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $33,949.67 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.26% higher, and an hour later 0.68% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.87% of its price, against 0.46% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.09x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.52x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.09x compares with 2.13x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the September PCE release. The price advanced 0.26 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.68 percent after sixty minutes. Its high-low range reached 0.87 percent of spot in the hour after the print, up from 0.46 percent in the prior hour. The resulting volatility ratio of 2.09x matched the median recorded across sixty-nine PCE releases since 2021. Volume expanded by a factor of 2.52x, again in line with the 2.55x median.
The release arrived five days before the November Federal Reserve decision. Releases in the two-week window ahead of policy meetings have produced a higher median volatility ratio of 2.13x. The observed 2.09x therefore sat where the timing alone would place it. Because the print coincided with the personal-income and core-PCE figures, the measured move reflects the combined arrival rather than PCE in isolation.
Traders reviewing the record for the next PCE release can note that the median volatility ratio remains 2.09x overall, with the modest lift to 2.13x confined to the pre-decision window. The data show no additional elevation once that calendar factor is accounted for.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.03 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 2.09x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 34026.10 | 33900.00 | 33993.51 | 0.13% | 0.37% | 0.22% | 159 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 34036.36 | 33900.00 | 34032.34 | 0.24% | 0.40% | 0.27% | 334 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 34060.00 | 33900.00 | 34001.10 | 0.15% | 0.47% | 0.46% | 504 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 34060.00 | 33900.00 | 34039.23 | 0.26% | 0.47% | 0.46% | 614 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 34194.90 | 33900.00 | 34122.30 | 0.51% | 0.86% | 0.46% | 1,273 BTC |
| 1 hour | 34194.90 | 33900.00 | 34180.00 | 0.67% | 0.86% | 0.46% | 2,199 BTC |
| 2 hours | 34195.21 | 33900.00 | 33924.18 | -0.08% | 0.86% | 0.63% | 4,823 BTC |
| 4 hours | 34195.21 | 33820.48 | 33985.73 | 0.11% | 1.10% | 0.73% | 8,082 BTC |
| 6 hours | 34195.21 | 33390.95 | 33440.10 | -1.52% | 2.35% | 0.94% | 12,991 BTC |
| 8 hours | 34195.21 | 33820.48 | 33985.73 | -0.05% | 1.10% | 1.36% | 12,685 BTC |
| 12 hours | 34195.21 | 33390.95 | 33912.00 | -0.11% | 2.35% | 1.36% | 18,627 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.09x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 2.19x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.01x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 2.12x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.51x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.39x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.94x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.00x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.07x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 2.28x | 1.53x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.22x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 1.01x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.44x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.98x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Shiba Inu | 1.75x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 1.50x | 1.49x | Ordinary |
| Polkadot | 1.52x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 1.80x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.02x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 2.95x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 1.01x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.07x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.51x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.09x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.