How Ethereum reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 25 June 2021

The short answer

Hardly a reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Ethereum's price swung 1.25 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For a PCE release, 1.77 times is usual. An hour later the price was 1.38% lower.

1.25x

Quiet

Trading (volume ratio)
1.37x
usual for PCE: 2.11x
Price at 8:30 AM
$1,872.98
15 minutes later
−0.77%
One hour later
−1.38%
range 2.16%, hour before 2.07%
ETH/USDT, 15 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
2,007.52
Close
1,821.51
24h change
-10.21%
24h high
2,019.99
24h low
1,791.22
24h volume
872,941 ETH

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 June 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for May 2021, against 0.6% in April 2021. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.25x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.37x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,872.98 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.77% lower, and an hour later 1.38% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.16% of its price, against 2.07% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.25x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Ethereum showed little response to the May 2021 Personal Consumption Expenditures release. Its volatility ratio reached 1.25x while volume rose 1.37x, both measured against an ordinary quarter hour the same day. The market therefore registered the print as background noise rather than a trading catalyst.

Price action remained contained. Ethereum stood at $1,872.98 at the 8:30 AM release. It traded 0.77 percent lower fifteen minutes later and 1.38 percent lower after one hour. The hour after the print produced a 2.16 percent high-to-low range, only marginally wider than the 2.07 percent range recorded in the hour before.

The release arrived 32 days ahead of the next Federal Reserve decision, placing it outside the two-week window in which timing has historically mattered. Across the full record since 2021, PCE prints inside that window produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, nearly identical to the 1.77x median recorded at other times. This instance's 1.25x ratio therefore ran below even the lower benchmark set by non-Fed-window releases. Traders reviewing the next PCE release can note that a quiet outcome remains possible when the print falls outside the immediate pre-decision period and when accompanying data such as personal income arrive at the same moment. The record shows only that such conditions have coincided with muted moves; it supplies no expectation for future prints.

How it compares

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.71 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.25x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 1872.99 1865.61 1866.10 -0.37% 0.39% 0.21% 593 ETH
5 minutes 1872.99 1861.30 1866.24 -0.36% 0.62% 0.57% 2,931 ETH
10 minutes 1872.99 1850.57 1852.34 -1.11% 1.20% 0.57% 6,338 ETH
15 minutes 1872.99 1850.57 1858.65 -0.77% 1.20% 1.25% 9,840 ETH
30 minutes 1872.99 1843.33 1860.58 -0.67% 1.58% 2.07% 22,784 ETH
1 hour 1872.99 1832.44 1847.05 -1.40% 2.16% 2.07% 50,486 ETH
2 hours 1873.75 1832.44 1861.98 -0.59% 2.20% 3.04% 85,332 ETH
4 hours 1873.75 1791.22 1798.80 -4.12% 4.40% 5.45% 226,904 ETH
6 hours 1873.75 1791.22 1837.97 -1.90% 4.40% 6.81% 322,152 ETH
8 hours 1947.37 1791.22 1798.80 -7.34% 8.02% 5.26% 399,481 ETH
12 hours 1873.75 1791.22 1821.51 -2.83% 4.40% 8.85% 504,574 ETH

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for PCE Reaction
Bitcoin 1.30x 2.03x Quiet
Ethereum 1.25x 1.77x Quiet
XRP 1.24x 1.81x Quiet
BNB 1.34x 1.75x Quiet
Solana 1.44x 1.57x Quiet
Dogecoin 0.76x 1.52x Quiet
TRON 1.13x 1.43x Quiet
Cardano 1.02x 1.90x Quiet
Chainlink 0.91x 1.62x Quiet
Bitcoin Cash 0.91x 1.69x Quiet
Hedera 1.10x 1.51x Quiet
Avalanche 1.46x 1.55x Quiet
Litecoin 0.96x 1.64x Quiet
Shiba Inu 1.80x 1.75x Ordinary
Uniswap 1.48x 1.49x Quiet
Polkadot 0.91x 1.50x Quiet
Aave 1.04x 1.58x Quiet
NEAR Protocol 1.03x 1.43x Quiet
Internet Computer 1.00x 1.50x Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC) 1.10x 1.60x Quiet
Filecoin 1.22x 1.51x Quiet

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for Ethereum

Questions about this page

Is 1.25x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.