The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 June 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for May 2021, against 0.6% in April 2021. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.30x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.75x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $33,379.95 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.73% lower, and an hour later 1.48% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.22% of its price, against 1.35% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.30x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet response to the May Personal Consumption Expenditures release. The volatility ratio reached only 1.30x in the quarter hour after publication, well below the 2.09x median recorded across PCE releases since 2021. Volume rose to 1.75x against a typical 2.55x. The market therefore treated the bundle of data that arrived together as routine rather than market-moving.
The release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, landing 32 days before the July policy meeting. PCE prints in that earlier window have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x for Bitcoin, compared with 1.81x at other times. This instance delivered even less movement than the non-window median would indicate.
Price action reflected the subdued volatility. Bitcoin stood at $33,379.95 at the 8:30 AM release and traded 0.73 percent lower fifteen minutes later. The hourly range expanded only to 2.22 percent from 1.35 percent beforehand. Traders watching future PCE prints may note that distance from policy meetings has coincided with smaller reactions in the record, though each release still carries its own surprise component.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.64 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.30x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 33379.96 | 33264.03 | 33278.14 | -0.31% | 0.35% | 0.11% | 131 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 33379.96 | 33204.08 | 33276.17 | -0.31% | 0.53% | 0.52% | 424 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 33379.96 | 33050.00 | 33082.74 | -0.90% | 0.99% | 0.78% | 1,103 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 33379.96 | 33000.00 | 33137.46 | -0.73% | 1.14% | 0.84% | 1,804 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 33379.96 | 32823.31 | 33093.89 | -0.86% | 1.67% | 1.34% | 4,019 BTC |
| 1 hour | 33379.96 | 32640.27 | 32885.62 | -1.50% | 2.22% | 1.34% | 7,256 BTC |
| 2 hours | 33448.00 | 32640.27 | 33270.52 | -0.33% | 2.41% | 2.15% | 13,013 BTC |
| 4 hours | 33448.00 | 31915.90 | 31978.48 | -4.38% | 4.58% | 3.86% | 29,376 BTC |
| 6 hours | 33448.00 | 31500.00 | 32140.52 | -3.86% | 5.82% | 4.04% | 45,302 BTC |
| 8 hours | 34480.00 | 31915.90 | 31978.48 | -6.68% | 7.44% | 4.40% | 49,791 BTC |
| 12 hours | 33448.00 | 31275.00 | 31854.71 | -4.79% | 6.50% | 6.62% | 69,305 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.30x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.25x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.24x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.34x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.44x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.76x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.13x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.02x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.91x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.91x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.10x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.46x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.96x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.80x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 1.48x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.91x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.04x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.03x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.10x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.22x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.30x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.