Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.04x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 16.70x, against a typical 2.11x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,703.75 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.96% higher, and an hour later 0.7% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.42% of its price, against 0.61% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for August 2026, against 0.2% in July 2026. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.04x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an exceptional reaction to the 30 September 2026 PCE release. Volatility reached 5.04x the baseline quarter-hour range, against the 1.80x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 16.70x, compared with the 2.15x typical for the event. The price stood at $2,703.75 at the 8:30 AM print, rose 0.96 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.7 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 1.42 percent from 0.61 percent beforehand.
Release context and timing
The print fell 27 days before the October FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced similar median volatility of 1.86x. Even against that benchmark the observed 5.04x move exceeded what the timing alone would indicate. Traders reviewing the record note that PCE releases have shown little sensitivity to proximity to FOMC meetings on average. The current instance demonstrates that an outsized reaction remains possible even when the event sits well clear of policy dates, without implying any change in the event's typical magnitude going forward.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 2.85 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 5.04x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2717.88 | 2700.10 | 2715.18 | 0.42% | 0.65% | 0.39% | 3,003 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2724.61 | 2700.10 | 2724.23 | 0.75% | 0.90% | 0.44% | 9,498 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2729.76 | 2700.10 | 2727.72 | 0.88% | 1.09% | 0.55% | 20,074 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2733.00 | 2700.10 | 2729.73 | 0.95% | 1.20% | 0.55% | 26,245 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2738.51 | 2700.10 | 2731.01 | 1.00% | 1.40% | 0.58% | 42,283 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2738.51 | 2700.10 | 2722.63 | 0.69% | 1.40% | 0.60% | 59,744 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2738.51 | 2676.31 | 2680.72 | -0.86% | 2.27% | 0.84% | 95,165 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2738.51 | 2668.00 | 2688.06 | -0.58% | 2.57% | 1.60% | 130,268 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2738.51 | 2668.00 | 2679.97 | -0.89% | 2.57% | 1.89% | 149,396 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2738.51 | 2665.00 | 2688.06 | 0.72% | 2.68% | 0.88% | 166,753 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2738.51 | 2667.94 | 2682.52 | -0.79% | 2.58% | 1.89% | 178,104 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 7.26x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 5.04x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.04x | 1.81x | Strong |
| BNB | 3.71x | 1.75x | Exceptional |
| Solana | 4.74x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 4.77x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 1.64x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 3.83x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 4.41x | 1.62x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 4.07x | 1.53x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.52x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 2.30x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 3.44x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.52x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Gram | 1.99x | 1.32x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 2.50x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 4.15x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 1.98x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 4.49x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| Bittensor | 3.21x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.73x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 3.33x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 1.99x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.52x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 1.98x | 1.51x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 5.04x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.