The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 June 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for May 2022, against 0.3% in April 2022. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.47x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.45x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,024.41 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.89% higher, and an hour later 0.49% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.69% of its price, against 1.69% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.47x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the May Personal Consumption Expenditures release and the bundle of data that arrived with it. Volatility reached only 1.47 times the level seen in a normal quarter hour that day, below the 1.80 times typical for PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose to 2.45 times normal, a modest step above the usual 2.15 times. The market therefore showed little sensitivity to the 0.6 percent month-over-month increase.
Price action confirmed the limited impact. Ethereum stood at $1,024.41 at the 8:30 AM release. It advanced 0.89 percent in the next fifteen minutes and 0.49 percent after an hour. The high-to-low range in the following sixty minutes matched the hour before exactly, at 1.69 percent of spot.
This release fell outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision, landing 26 days before the July meeting. Across prior PCE prints since 2021, those near policy decisions produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86 times while others reached 1.77 times. The 1.47 times observed here therefore fell short of what the surrounding calendar would normally produce.
Traders may note that even when multiple labor and income figures accompany PCE, the combined package can still leave Ethereum largely unmoved when the timing does not align with imminent policy shifts.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.83 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.47x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1031.85 | 1024.40 | 1029.63 | 0.51% | 0.72% | 0.20% | 8,661 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1037.10 | 1024.40 | 1032.40 | 0.77% | 1.22% | 0.38% | 20,703 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1037.10 | 1024.40 | 1030.24 | 0.57% | 1.22% | 0.64% | 25,831 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1037.10 | 1024.40 | 1033.52 | 0.88% | 1.22% | 1.09% | 29,385 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1041.67 | 1024.40 | 1032.31 | 0.77% | 1.66% | 1.09% | 46,215 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1041.67 | 1024.40 | 1029.42 | 0.49% | 1.66% | 1.68% | 73,353 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1041.67 | 998.00 | 1014.22 | -1.00% | 4.19% | 1.79% | 170,266 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1041.67 | 998.00 | 1038.48 | 1.35% | 4.19% | 4.01% | 324,779 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1046.00 | 998.00 | 1029.35 | 0.48% | 4.59% | 6.24% | 408,340 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1054.15 | 998.00 | 1038.48 | -1.37% | 5.33% | 5.29% | 609,230 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1106.80 | 998.00 | 1093.52 | 6.32% | 9.83% | 8.28% | 835,125 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.55x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.47x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.34x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.17x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.21x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.04x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 2.06x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 1.31x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.50x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.29x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.18x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.28x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.81x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Shiba Inu | 1.44x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.86x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.32x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.06x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.34x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.31x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.19x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.47x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.