The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 June 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for May 2022, against 0.3% in April 2022. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $19,146.55 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.59% higher, and an hour later 0.42% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.02% of its price, against 0.92% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.55x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.44x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.55x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed an ordinary response to the 30 June 2022 PCE release. The price stood at $19,146.55 at 8:30 AM EDT. It rose 0.59 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.42 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range reached 1.02 percent of the spot price in the hour after the data, compared with 0.92 percent in the hour before. Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 1.55x for the quarter hour of the release, below the 2.09x median across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose 2.44x against the typical 2.55x.
The release arrived alongside Personal Income, Core PCE, and jobless claims data, so the measured move reflects the combined print. It fell 26 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window in which PCE releases have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x. Against the 1.81x median recorded for PCE releases at other times, the 1.55x outcome was muted relative to its timing.
Traders reviewing the record can note that PCE releases away from policy meetings have tended to generate smaller volatility spikes than those inside the two-week window. This instance stayed inside that pattern and produced no departure from the event's baseline behavior.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.77 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.55x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 19240.71 | 19146.54 | 19208.21 | 0.32% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 404 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 19295.10 | 19146.54 | 19251.83 | 0.55% | 0.77% | 0.20% | 1,278 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 19295.10 | 19146.54 | 19195.67 | 0.26% | 0.77% | 0.26% | 1,663 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 19295.10 | 19146.54 | 19258.98 | 0.58% | 0.77% | 0.46% | 1,949 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 19341.26 | 19146.54 | 19204.37 | 0.30% | 1.01% | 0.46% | 3,132 BTC |
| 1 hour | 19341.26 | 19146.54 | 19226.08 | 0.41% | 1.01% | 0.92% | 4,842 BTC |
| 2 hours | 19341.26 | 18756.71 | 18940.88 | -1.09% | 3.02% | 1.05% | 12,637 BTC |
| 4 hours | 19341.26 | 18756.71 | 19198.31 | 0.27% | 3.02% | 2.17% | 20,724 BTC |
| 6 hours | 19341.26 | 18756.71 | 19054.54 | -0.48% | 3.02% | 4.44% | 25,667 BTC |
| 8 hours | 19341.83 | 18756.71 | 19198.31 | -0.65% | 3.03% | 4.38% | 39,209 BTC |
| 12 hours | 20699.99 | 18626.00 | 20491.03 | 6.56% | 10.02% | 5.96% | 57,827 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.55x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.47x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.34x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.17x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.21x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.04x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 2.06x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 1.31x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.50x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.29x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.18x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.28x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.81x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Shiba Inu | 1.44x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.86x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.32x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.06x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.34x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.31x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.19x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.55x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.