The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 July 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for June 2025, against 0.2% in May 2025. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.41x, against 1.80x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.08x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,843.04 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.42% lower, and an hour later 1.08% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.35% of its price, against 0.51% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 30 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.41x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Volatility reached just 1.41x its normal quarter-hour level, well below the 1.80x median recorded for PCE prints since 2021. Volume barely rose at 1.08x against a typical 2.15x. The market therefore showed little interest despite the simultaneous arrival of personal income, core PCE, and jobless claims figures.
Price action remained contained. Its high-to-low range expanded only to 1.35 percent of spot in the hour after the release, compared with 0.51 percent beforehand.
The release fell the day after the Federal Reserve's 30 July policy decision. The 1.41x volatility ratio sat below the 1.77x median observed for PCE releases that follow rate decisions. The print also came well outside the two-week window ahead of the next scheduled meeting.
Traders watching future PCE dates may note that timing relative to Federal Reserve decisions has not produced markedly different volatility outcomes for Ethereum in the past, and that a release can still elicit little response when the data arrive as part of a larger bundle.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.80x. This one was 0.78 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.80x. Thick line: this release, 1.41x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 3843.80 | 3834.75 | 3836.87 | -0.16% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 990 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 3843.80 | 3823.17 | 3827.05 | -0.42% | 0.54% | 0.33% | 2,898 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 3843.80 | 3823.17 | 3833.05 | -0.26% | 0.54% | 0.42% | 3,827 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 3843.80 | 3823.17 | 3827.06 | -0.42% | 0.54% | 0.42% | 4,928 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 3843.80 | 3822.95 | 3835.00 | -0.21% | 0.54% | 0.47% | 9,056 ETH |
| 1 hour | 3843.80 | 3791.97 | 3801.55 | -1.09% | 1.35% | 0.51% | 29,292 ETH |
| 2 hours | 3843.80 | 3766.66 | 3774.88 | -1.81% | 2.01% | 0.99% | 67,821 ETH |
| 4 hours | 3843.80 | 3762.27 | 3794.41 | -1.28% | 2.12% | 1.21% | 110,435 ETH |
| 6 hours | 3843.80 | 3749.00 | 3776.78 | -1.75% | 2.47% | 1.35% | 167,708 ETH |
| 8 hours | 3873.28 | 3762.27 | 3794.41 | -1.94% | 2.87% | 1.51% | 165,881 ETH |
| 12 hours | 3843.80 | 3658.18 | 3690.52 | -4.13% | 4.83% | 1.51% | 323,176 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.15x | 2.06x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.41x | 1.79x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.98x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.04x | 1.78x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.57x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.28x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.66x | 1.42x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 1.29x | 1.88x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.32x | 1.61x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.92x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.66x | 1.67x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.73x | 1.48x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 1.53x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 0.64x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.66x | 1.29x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.47x | 1.74x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.75x | 1.48x | Ordinary |
| Polkadot | 1.49x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Aave | 2.17x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 1.15x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.92x | 1.37x | Strong |
| Aptos | 1.45x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.34x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.63x | 1.56x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.97x | 1.50x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.41x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.