How Cardano reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 31 July 2018

The short answer

An ordinary reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Cardano's price swung 2.10 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For a PCE release, 1.90 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.45% higher.

2.10x

Ordinary

Trading (volume ratio)
2.20x
usual for PCE: 2.40x
Price at 8:30 AM
$0.1412
15 minutes later
−0.31%
One hour later
+0.45%
range 2.27%, hour before 3.15%
ADA/USDT, 1 minute candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
0.1525
Close
0.1423
24h change
-7.13%
24h high
0.1525
24h low
0.1390
24h volume
139.206M ADA

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 July 2018 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.1% for June 2018, against 0.2% in May 2018. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Cardano moved

Cardano was at $0.1412 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.31% lower, and an hour later 0.45% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.27% of its price, against 3.15% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Cardano's volatility ratio was 2.10x, against 1.90x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.20x, against a typical 2.40x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Cardano about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.00x across 17, against 1.88x across 52. This one came out the day before the Federal Reserve's 1 August rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.10x compares with 2.00x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Cardano's median volatility ratio is 1.90x.

How it compares

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Cardano's usual price swing is 1.90x. This one was 1.11 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.90x. Thick line: this release, 2.10x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 0.1412 0.14081 0.14084 -0.26% 0.28% 0.37% 13,215 ADA
5 minutes 0.1412 0.139 0.14036 -0.60% 1.56% 0.95% 1.121M ADA
10 minutes 0.14139 0.139 0.14121 0.01% 1.69% 1.15% 1.831M ADA
15 minutes 0.1415 0.139 0.14076 -0.31% 1.77% 1.57% 2.747M ADA
30 minutes 0.14193 0.139 0.1414 0.14% 2.06% 2.04% 4.877M ADA
1 hour 0.1422 0.139 0.14183 0.44% 2.25% 3.06% 8.512M ADA
2 hours 0.14252 0.139 0.14023 -0.69% 2.47% 3.92% 20.12M ADA
4 hours 0.14479 0.139 0.14448 2.27% 4.00% 3.92% 35.244M ADA
6 hours 0.14646 0.139 0.14215 0.67% 5.09% 5.69% 47.547M ADA
8 hours 0.1453 0.139 0.14448 -0.53% 4.34% 5.29% 62.542M ADA
12 hours 0.14646 0.139 0.1423 0.77% 5.09% 8.44% 70.314M ADA

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for PCE Reaction
Bitcoin 4.20x 2.03x Exceptional
Ethereum 2.37x 1.77x Strong
XRP 2.65x 1.81x Strong
BNB 2.26x 1.75x Ordinary
TRON 1.44x 1.43x Quiet
Cardano 2.10x 1.90x Ordinary
Litecoin 3.22x 1.64x Strong

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for Cardano

Questions about this page

Is 2.10x a lot?

For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.90x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Cardano moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.