How Cardano reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 29 October 2018

The short answer

An exceptional reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Cardano's price swung 9.08 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For a PCE release, 1.90 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.92% lower.

9.08x

Exceptional

Trading (volume ratio)
21.53x
usual for PCE: 2.40x
Price at 8:30 AM
$0.0707
15 minutes later
−1.92%
One hour later
−0.92%
range 3.54%, hour before 2.49%
ADA/USDT, 10 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
0.0736
Close
0.0704
24h change
-4.56%
24h high
0.0738
24h low
0.0690
24h volume
59.615M ADA

Measured by Clometrix

Cardano's volatility ratio was 9.08x, against 1.90x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 21.53x, against a typical 2.40x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Cardano moved

Cardano was at $0.0707 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.92% lower, and an hour later 0.92% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.54% of its price, against 2.49% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 October 2018 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for September 2018, against 0.1% in August 2018. Prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Cardano about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.00x across 17, against 1.88x across 52. This one came out 10 days before the Federal Reserve's 8 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 9.08x compares with 2.00x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Cardano's median volatility ratio is 1.90x.

How it compares

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Cardano's usual price swing is 1.90x. This one was 4.79 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.90x. Thick line: this release, 9.08x.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 0.07071 0.07051 0.07052 -0.23% 0.28% 0.20% 246,495 ADA
5 minutes 0.07071 0.0701 0.07015 -0.76% 0.86% 0.82% 1.001M ADA
10 minutes 0.07071 0.069 0.06928 -2.02% 2.42% 1.29% 4.169M ADA
15 minutes 0.07071 0.069 0.06932 -1.96% 2.42% 1.48% 5.425M ADA
30 minutes 0.07071 0.069 0.06972 -1.38% 2.42% 1.92% 8.892M ADA
1 hour 0.0715 0.069 0.07003 -0.93% 3.50% 2.43% 14.388M ADA
2 hours 0.0715 0.069 0.07041 -0.38% 3.50% 3.62% 18.953M ADA
4 hours 0.0715 0.069 0.07011 -0.81% 3.50% 3.80% 22.989M ADA
6 hours 0.0715 0.069 0.07013 -0.78% 3.50% 3.82% 27.762M ADA
8 hours 0.07334 0.069 0.07011 -4.39% 5.92% 0.92% 38.398M ADA
12 hours 0.0715 0.069 0.07036 -0.45% 3.50% 4.39% 36.821M ADA

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for PCE Reaction
Bitcoin 7.48x 2.03x Exceptional
Ethereum 12.87x 1.77x Exceptional
XRP 8.55x 1.81x Exceptional
BNB 4.47x 1.75x Exceptional
TRON 14.16x 1.43x Exceptional
Cardano 9.08x 1.90x Exceptional
Litecoin 8.88x 1.64x Exceptional

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for Cardano

Questions about this page

Is 9.08x a lot?

For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.90x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Cardano moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.