The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 24 November 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for October 2021, against 0.3% in September 2021. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $4,293.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.68% lower, and an hour later 2.1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.97% of its price, against 1.07% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.80x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.94x, against a typical 2.11x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.80x compares with 1.72x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum posted an ordinary reaction to the November 2021 PCE release. The 1.80x volatility ratio matched the median recorded across all 69 PCE prints since 2021. Price fell 0.68 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 2.1 percent within the hour, while the high-to-low range reached 2.97 percent of spot. Volume remained subdued at 0.94x, well below the 2.15x typical for the event.
The print itself showed faster price growth, with headline PCE rising 0.6 percent month-over-month after 0.3 percent in September. It arrived together with GDP, durable-goods orders, personal income and both initial and continued claims, so the measured response reflects the combined release cluster rather than PCE alone. The timing, twenty days before the December FOMC decision, placed the event outside the two-week window that has historically produced a marginally higher median volatility ratio of 1.86x.
Clometrix therefore classifies the move as ordinary for PCE. The 1.80x volatility ratio aligned closely with the 1.77x median observed for releases at comparable distances from policy meetings. Traders watching the next PCE report may note that the event continues to generate its characteristic volatility response regardless of proximity to Federal Reserve decisions.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 1.02 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.80x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 4297.33 | 4293.19 | 4295.67 | 0.05% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 205 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 4306.41 | 4290.32 | 4292.31 | -0.03% | 0.37% | 0.27% | 1,093 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 4306.41 | 4265.05 | 4266.90 | -0.62% | 0.96% | 0.51% | 2,693 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 4306.41 | 4262.72 | 4264.24 | -0.68% | 1.01% | 0.55% | 3,824 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 4306.41 | 4207.60 | 4220.38 | -1.73% | 2.29% | 1.07% | 16,789 ETH |
| 1 hour | 4306.41 | 4178.93 | 4203.09 | -2.15% | 2.96% | 1.07% | 40,504 ETH |
| 2 hours | 4306.41 | 4167.65 | 4218.15 | -1.78% | 3.22% | 1.17% | 66,068 ETH |
| 4 hours | 4306.41 | 4167.65 | 4224.70 | -1.63% | 3.22% | 1.71% | 109,569 ETH |
| 6 hours | 4306.41 | 4167.65 | 4212.40 | -1.92% | 3.22% | 2.03% | 142,011 ETH |
| 8 hours | 4328.00 | 4167.65 | 4224.70 | -2.44% | 3.70% | 2.89% | 173,455 ETH |
| 12 hours | 4336.00 | 4167.65 | 4328.69 | 0.81% | 3.88% | 2.89% | 236,293 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.81x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.80x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.01x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.25x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.24x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.41x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.13x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.04x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.72x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.31x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.24x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.04x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.28x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.81x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.57x | 1.49x | Ordinary |
| Polkadot | 1.23x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.58x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.25x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.57x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.51x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.38x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.80x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.