How Bitcoin reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 24 November 2021

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 24 November 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for October 2021, against 0.3% in September 2021. Prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $56,606.82 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.49% lower, and an hour later 0.92% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.51% of its price, against 1.03% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.81x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.36x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.81x compares with 1.81x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.

What it means

Ordinary Response Aligns With Timing

Bitcoin posted a volatility ratio of 1.81x in the quarter hour after the 24 November 2021 PCE release, below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose only 1.36x against the event's typical 2.55x. The price fell from $56,606.82 to a 0.49 percent loss at fifteen minutes and a 0.92 percent loss at one hour, while the high-low range widened modestly to 1.51 percent from 1.03 percent in the prior hour. Clometrix therefore classifies the move as ordinary for the event.

Because the print fell twenty days before the December FOMC decision, it sat outside the two-week window that has produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio in eighteen prior cases. Its 1.81x reading matched the 1.81x median for the fifty-one releases that occurred farther from policy meetings.

Traders monitoring the next PCE print can note that proximity to a Federal Reserve decision has coincided with larger Bitcoin moves in the past record, while releases at other times have more often produced ratios near the 2.09x median.

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every PCE release for Bitcoin