The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 May 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for April 2021, against 0.5% in March 2021. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.14x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.33x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,569.63 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.81% lower, and an hour later 0.46% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.22% of its price, against 6.02% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.14x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a subdued response to the April Personal Consumption Expenditures release. Volatility reached 1.14x against the 1.80x median recorded for PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded by 1.33x, well below the 2.15x typical reading. The price stood at $2,569.63 at the instant of publication, moved 0.81 percent lower inside fifteen minutes, and stood 0.46 percent higher after one hour. The high-to-low range in the following hour measured 3.22 percent of spot, narrower than the 6.02 percent range observed in the hour before.
The release fell outside the two-week period preceding a Federal Reserve decision, appearing eighteen days before the June 2021 meeting. Across the full record, PCE events inside that window produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x while those at other times produced 1.77x. The 1.14x outcome on this occasion therefore remained below even the benchmark for non-window releases.
The figures arrived together with Personal Income and Core PCE prints. The combined event produced no measurable elevation in activity. A trader reviewing the next PCE release can observe that proximity to policy meetings has not altered the magnitude of Ethereum's reaction in the data collected since 2021.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.64 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.14x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2570.76 | 2555.16 | 2556.21 | -0.52% | 0.61% | 0.41% | 2,411 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2570.76 | 2535.74 | 2536.76 | -1.30% | 1.36% | 0.76% | 9,075 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2570.76 | 2534.92 | 2548.31 | -0.84% | 1.39% | 2.29% | 14,633 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2570.76 | 2534.92 | 2548.82 | -0.82% | 1.39% | 2.29% | 18,860 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2574.96 | 2534.92 | 2562.84 | -0.26% | 1.55% | 5.93% | 34,677 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2617.78 | 2534.92 | 2581.35 | 0.45% | 3.17% | 6.01% | 97,712 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2617.78 | 2534.92 | 2558.24 | -0.45% | 3.17% | 6.01% | 160,582 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2617.78 | 2503.00 | 2509.44 | -2.40% | 4.38% | 6.01% | 272,254 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2617.78 | 2456.25 | 2496.35 | -2.94% | 6.17% | 6.59% | 375,784 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2617.78 | 2419.46 | 2509.44 | -1.69% | 7.58% | 8.56% | 660,875 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2617.78 | 2327.38 | 2457.64 | -4.56% | 11.09% | 11.96% | 749,174 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.95x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.14x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.68x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.06x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.27x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.80x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.73x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.67x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.93x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.76x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.58x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.94x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.06x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.71x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.97x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.81x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.01x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.73x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.28x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.39x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.87x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.14x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.