How Ethereum reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 27 November 2019

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 27 November 2019 at 10:00 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for October 2019, against 0.1% in September 2019. Prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.70x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.67x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $147.67 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% higher, and an hour later 2.02% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.89% of its price, against 1.18% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 17, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 14 days before the Federal Reserve's 11 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.70x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.40 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 0.70x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	147.76	147.57	147.61	-0.04%	0.13%	0.23%	171 ETH
5 minutes	147.76	147.35	147.58	-0.06%	0.28%	0.23%	1,031 ETH
10 minutes	147.76	147.35	147.49	-0.12%	0.28%	0.28%	1,715 ETH
15 minutes	148.00	147.35	147.96	0.20%	0.44%	0.28%	2,437 ETH
30 minutes	148.75	147.35	148.69	0.69%	0.94%	0.34%	6,483 ETH
1 hour	151.62	147.35	150.65	1.98%	2.82%	1.17%	31,628 ETH
2 hours	153.87	147.35	152.86	3.40%	4.24%	1.17%	73,078 ETH
4 hours	155.49	147.35	153.06	3.52%	5.24%	4.51%	149,731 ETH
6 hours	155.54	147.35	153.15	3.58%	5.27%	5.71%	177,533 ETH
8 hours	155.49	142.63	153.06	6.76%	8.27%	4.71%	273,863 ETH
12 hours	155.54	147.35	152.61	3.24%	5.27%	5.71%	227,074 ETH

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for PCE	Reaction
Bitcoin	0.68x	2.03x	Quiet
Ethereum	0.70x	1.77x	Quiet
XRP	1.46x	1.81x	Quiet
BNB	0.56x	1.75x	Quiet
Dogecoin	1.75x	1.52x	Ordinary
TRON	0.66x	1.43x	Quiet
Cardano	1.06x	1.90x	Quiet
Chainlink	1.00x	1.62x	Quiet
Hedera	0.81x	1.51x	Quiet
Litecoin	0.53x	1.64x	Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC)	1.21x	1.60x	Quiet

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for Ethereum

Questions about this page

Is 0.70x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.