Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.65x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.45x, against a typical 2.52x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $27,940.37 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.59% higher, and an hour later 1.21% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.62% of its price, against 0.49% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 March 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for February 2023, against 0.5% in January 2023. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.65x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the March 2023 PCE release. Volatility reached 3.65x the level of a typical quarter-hour that day, well above the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 5.45x its baseline, compared with the 2.55x median for the event. The move therefore exceeded both the event's usual footprint and the broader historical distribution for this release.
It rose 0.59 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.21 percent within the first hour, while its hourly high-low range widened to 1.62 percent from 0.49 percent in the preceding hour.
The release fell 32 days before the May 3 Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves. Even so, its 3.65x volatility ratio surpassed the 1.81x median observed for PCE releases outside that window. The outcome shows that proximity to a policy meeting is not required for an outsized response. This release demonstrated that individual prints can still exceed the 2.09x median volatility ratio when the data surprise is large enough, regardless of the surrounding calendar.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.80 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 3.65x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 28163.49 | 27882.81 | 28129.32 | 0.67% | 1.00% | 0.06% | 810 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 28185.63 | 27882.81 | 28141.81 | 0.72% | 1.07% | 0.14% | 1,834 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 28185.63 | 27882.81 | 28127.15 | 0.66% | 1.07% | 0.19% | 2,567 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 28185.63 | 27882.81 | 28106.07 | 0.59% | 1.07% | 0.30% | 3,101 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 28185.63 | 27882.81 | 28110.36 | 0.60% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 4,119 BTC |
| 1 hour | 28334.96 | 27882.81 | 28279.27 | 1.20% | 1.60% | 0.49% | 7,005 BTC |
| 2 hours | 28551.20 | 27882.81 | 28407.84 | 1.65% | 2.34% | 0.54% | 14,006 BTC |
| 4 hours | 28656.69 | 27882.81 | 28405.22 | 1.64% | 2.70% | 1.09% | 24,580 BTC |
| 6 hours | 28656.69 | 27882.81 | 28344.74 | 1.43% | 2.70% | 2.10% | 28,865 BTC |
| 8 hours | 28656.69 | 27688.00 | 28405.22 | 2.30% | 3.38% | 3.04% | 34,313 BTC |
| 12 hours | 28656.69 | 27882.81 | 28488.65 | 1.92% | 2.70% | 3.04% | 39,977 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.65x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 4.87x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 1.94x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.01x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.43x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 2.80x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.40x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.91x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.80x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 4.81x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 3.19x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.90x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 1.77x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 7.61x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 3.49x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 2.36x | 1.58x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.06x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 1.70x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 2.45x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | Not measured | 1.60x | - |
| Filecoin | 3.49x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 3.65x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.