How Ethereum reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 26 February 2021

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 February 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for January 2021, against 0.4% in December 2020. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.71x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.67x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,460.68 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% higher, and an hour later 2.98% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.24% of its price, against 2.51% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.71x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

The PCE release produced a quiet reaction in Ethereum. Volatility reached just 0.71x of normal levels in the quarter hour after the data, well below the 1.80x median for PCE events since 2021. Volume followed a similar pattern at 0.67x against a typical 2.15x. The market barely noticed the release.

The figures arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE prints, yet the combined event left prices largely unmoved. The hour after showed a 3.24 percent high-to-low range, up modestly from 2.51 percent beforehand.

Timing played no special role. The release fell 18 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window where PCE has historically shown comparable impact on Ethereum. This instance registered below even that baseline. Traders monitoring future PCE prints can note that releases like this one sometimes coincide with minimal immediate price action, even when accompanied by related data. The record indicates variability rather than a fixed pattern.

How it compares

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.40 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 0.71x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	1464.27	1459.49	1463.79	0.21%	0.33%	0.25%	1,023 ETH
5 minutes	1469.22	1459.49	1467.37	0.46%	0.66%	0.40%	3,388 ETH
10 minutes	1471.99	1459.49	1466.41	0.39%	0.85%	0.62%	5,418 ETH
15 minutes	1471.99	1459.49	1463.87	0.22%	0.85%	0.77%	7,597 ETH
30 minutes	1478.40	1457.76	1460.02	-0.05%	1.40%	2.02%	14,442 ETH
1 hour	1504.74	1457.46	1504.18	2.89%	3.14%	2.45%	43,511 ETH
2 hours	1530.65	1457.46	1505.50	2.98%	4.78%	2.96%	100,646 ETH
4 hours	1562.25	1457.46	1538.07	5.03%	6.71%	2.96%	199,136 ETH
6 hours	1562.25	1457.46	1512.08	3.40%	6.71%	6.44%	271,547 ETH
8 hours	1562.25	1452.18	1538.07	5.17%	7.05%	8.54%	361,314 ETH
12 hours	1562.25	1410.33	1496.40	2.39%	9.72%	8.54%	552,042 ETH

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for PCE	Reaction
Bitcoin	0.73x	2.03x	Quiet
Ethereum	0.71x	1.77x	Quiet
XRP	0.62x	1.81x	Quiet
BNB	0.73x	1.75x	Quiet
Solana	0.55x	1.57x	Quiet
Dogecoin	0.61x	1.52x	Quiet
TRON	0.54x	1.43x	Quiet
Cardano	0.83x	1.90x	Quiet
Chainlink	0.82x	1.62x	Quiet
Bitcoin Cash	0.80x	1.69x	Quiet
Hedera	0.66x	1.51x	Quiet
Avalanche	0.94x	1.55x	Quiet
Litecoin	0.61x	1.64x	Quiet
Uniswap	0.49x	1.49x	Quiet
Polkadot	0.88x	1.50x	Quiet
Aave	0.53x	1.58x	Quiet
NEAR Protocol	0.95x	1.43x	Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC)	1.01x	1.60x	Quiet
Filecoin	0.50x	1.51x	Quiet

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for Ethereum

Questions about this page

Is 0.71x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.