The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 February 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for January 2021, against 0.4% in December 2020. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.73x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.89x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $46,176.41 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 1.35% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.38% of its price, against 2.52% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.73x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Volume rose only 0.89x, well below the 2.55x typical level, confirming the market registered no material shift in the quarter hour after the figures arrived. The price sat at $46,176.41 at 8:30 AM EST, remained unchanged fifteen minutes later and posted a modest 1.35 percent gain by the end of the hour, while the high-to-low range narrowed slightly to 2.38 percent from 2.52 percent beforehand.
PCE releases issued within two weeks of a Federal Reserve decision have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18 observations, compared with 1.81x across the remaining 51 prints. This instance fell 18 days before the March 2021 rate decision, aligning instead with the lower-magnitude cohort.
Even against that lower benchmark the observed 0.73x ratio remained subdued, indicating the market discounted the data more than timing alone would predict. The record therefore shows that proximity to policy meetings coincides with larger reactions, yet releases at other points can still produce limited price movement when the figures themselves match prior readings. Traders monitoring upcoming PCE prints may note that releases scheduled more than two weeks from a decision have tended to generate smaller volatility spikes, though each instance still requires direct measurement against the prevailing session range.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.36 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 0.73x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 46238.57 | 46093.00 | 46233.21 | 0.12% | 0.31% | 0.31% | 89 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 46450.00 | 46093.00 | 46368.58 | 0.41% | 0.77% | 0.53% | 387 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 46499.99 | 46093.00 | 46346.41 | 0.37% | 0.88% | 1.03% | 566 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 46499.99 | 46093.00 | 46182.55 | 0.01% | 0.88% | 1.26% | 814 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 46618.16 | 45800.00 | 45958.41 | -0.47% | 1.76% | 1.91% | 1,759 BTC |
| 1 hour | 46896.71 | 45800.00 | 46799.95 | 1.33% | 2.34% | 2.46% | 3,674 BTC |
| 2 hours | 47429.00 | 45800.00 | 46340.30 | 0.35% | 3.43% | 3.39% | 8,425 BTC |
| 4 hours | 48424.11 | 45800.00 | 47815.39 | 3.43% | 5.42% | 3.39% | 17,844 BTC |
| 6 hours | 48424.11 | 45800.00 | 47210.29 | 2.19% | 5.42% | 6.68% | 23,114 BTC |
| 8 hours | 48424.11 | 45662.94 | 47815.39 | 3.96% | 5.70% | 7.73% | 32,753 BTC |
| 12 hours | 48424.11 | 45000.00 | 47565.15 | 2.92% | 7.07% | 7.73% | 44,369 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.73x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.71x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.62x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.73x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.55x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.61x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.54x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.83x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.82x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.80x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.66x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.94x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.61x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.49x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.88x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.53x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.95x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.01x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.50x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.73x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.