The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 January 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for December 2023, against 0.0% in November 2023. Prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.16x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.21x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,249.37 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.18% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.77% of its price, against 0.86% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 31 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.16x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the December Personal Consumption Expenditures print, posting a volatility ratio of 1.16x against the 1.80x median for PCE releases since 2021. Volume expanded by only 1.21x versus the customary 2.15x. Both metrics stayed below the 1.5x threshold that Clometrix treats as no discernible response. The release coincided with Personal Income and Core PCE figures, yet the combined data produced no material shift in activity.
The print arrived five days before the Federal Reserve's January policy decision. PCE releases in that window have historically generated a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum. The 1.16x reading here fell noticeably short of that precedent, showing less movement than the pre-decision setting would normally imply.
Ethereum stood at $2,249.37 at the 8:30 AM release. Fifteen minutes later the price was 0.18 percent lower and one hour later it had returned to the opening level. The high-to-low range in the following hour measured 0.77 percent of price, inside the 0.86 percent range recorded in the hour before the data.
Traders reviewing the next PCE release may observe that proximity to a Federal Reserve meeting does not guarantee elevated volatility when the underlying figures align closely with recent trends.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.65 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.16x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2249.80 | 2248.61 | 2249.29 | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.02% | 230 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2249.80 | 2246.73 | 2247.01 | -0.11% | 0.14% | 0.21% | 844 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2249.80 | 2242.19 | 2244.18 | -0.23% | 0.34% | 0.21% | 2,429 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2249.80 | 2242.19 | 2245.40 | -0.18% | 0.34% | 0.30% | 3,605 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2249.80 | 2234.46 | 2240.89 | -0.38% | 0.68% | 0.30% | 9,092 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2251.71 | 2234.46 | 2248.41 | -0.04% | 0.77% | 0.85% | 14,113 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2259.63 | 2234.46 | 2254.92 | 0.25% | 1.11% | 0.93% | 29,934 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2282.36 | 2234.46 | 2268.81 | 0.86% | 2.10% | 2.68% | 80,650 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2282.36 | 2234.46 | 2263.62 | 0.63% | 2.10% | 3.06% | 111,622 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2282.36 | 2204.52 | 2268.81 | 2.45% | 3.41% | 1.88% | 194,125 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2282.94 | 2234.46 | 2277.49 | 1.23% | 2.12% | 3.06% | 167,976 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.12x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.16x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.99x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.25x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.91x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.22x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.85x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.16x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.18x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.92x | 1.53x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.64x | 1.69x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 1.31x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.08x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.88x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.00x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.49x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.02x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.13x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.94x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 0.82x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.26x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.85x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.44x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.16x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.