The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 January 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for December 2023, against 0.0% in November 2023. Prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.12x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.07x, against a typical 2.55x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $41,192.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.15% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.89% of its price, against 0.99% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 31 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.12x compares with 2.13x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Volatility reached just 1.12x its ordinary quarter-hour level that day, well below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 prior PCE events since 2021, while volume ticked only 1.07x against a typical 2.55x.
The release arrived five days before the Federal Reserve's January 31 rate decision. PCE prints in that pre-decision window have produced a median 2.13x volatility ratio for Bitcoin across eighteen prior instances, compared with 1.81x at other times. This event's 1.12x reading therefore fell short of the move its timing alone would have suggested.
Traders preparing for the next PCE may observe that a pre-Fed slot does not guarantee elevated price action when the data print aligns closely with recent readings and coincides with several other releases. The record shows only what has coincided with muted volatility in the past; it supplies no forward expectation.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 0.54 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 1.12x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 41205.76 | 41179.88 | 41193.99 | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 25 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 41205.76 | 41134.15 | 41147.75 | -0.11% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 120 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 41205.76 | 41076.13 | 41113.63 | -0.19% | 0.31% | 0.20% | 286 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 41205.76 | 41076.13 | 41129.32 | -0.15% | 0.31% | 0.23% | 435 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 41205.76 | 40914.50 | 41021.65 | -0.42% | 0.71% | 0.32% | 1,118 BTC |
| 1 hour | 41282.61 | 40914.50 | 41186.57 | -0.01% | 0.89% | 0.98% | 2,003 BTC |
| 2 hours | 41588.00 | 40914.50 | 41303.03 | 0.27% | 1.62% | 1.27% | 5,470 BTC |
| 4 hours | 42010.02 | 40914.50 | 41763.59 | 1.37% | 2.61% | 3.52% | 12,973 BTC |
| 6 hours | 42193.80 | 40914.50 | 42068.87 | 2.08% | 3.03% | 3.86% | 17,466 BTC |
| 8 hours | 42010.02 | 40037.50 | 41763.59 | 3.78% | 4.70% | 0.93% | 28,065 BTC |
| 12 hours | 42246.82 | 40914.50 | 41882.91 | 1.65% | 3.15% | 3.93% | 25,351 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.12x | 2.06x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.16x | 1.79x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.99x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.25x | 1.78x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.91x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.22x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.85x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.16x | 1.88x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.18x | 1.61x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.92x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.64x | 1.67x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 1.31x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.08x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.88x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.00x | 1.74x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.49x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.02x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.13x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.94x | 1.37x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 0.82x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.26x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.85x | 1.56x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.44x | 1.50x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.12x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.