How Chainlink reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 30 April 2021

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 April 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for March 2021, against 0.4% in February 2021. Prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Chainlink's volatility ratio was 1.12x, against 1.62x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.73x, against a typical 2.08x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Chainlink moved

Chainlink was at $38.24 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.5% higher, and an hour later 0.73% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.62% of its price, against 1.83% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Chainlink about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.62x across 17, against 1.59x across 52. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 28 April rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.12x compares with 1.59x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Chainlink's usual price swing is 1.62x. This one was 0.69 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.62x. Thick line: this release, 1.12x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	38.26	38.21	38.25	0.03%	0.13%	0.10%	2,646 LINK
5 minutes	38.27	38.17	38.23	-0.03%	0.26%	0.29%	15,631 LINK
10 minutes	38.45	38.17	38.34	0.26%	0.73%	0.34%	56,208 LINK
15 minutes	38.46	38.17	38.43	0.49%	0.75%	0.55%	84,158 LINK
30 minutes	38.58	38.17	38.54	0.78%	1.06%	1.44%	159,527 LINK
1 hour	38.79	38.17	38.52	0.73%	1.60%	1.83%	361,916 LINK
2 hours	38.79	38.10	38.53	0.75%	1.78%	2.24%	667,613 LINK
4 hours	38.79	38.06	38.30	0.16%	1.88%	2.29%	1.198M LINK
6 hours	38.79	37.95	38.05	-0.50%	2.17%	3.15%	1.519M LINK
8 hours	38.79	37.53	38.30	1.91%	3.25%	5.34%	2.304M LINK
12 hours	38.79	37.60	38.28	0.10%	3.07%	6.72%	2.499M LINK

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for PCE	Reaction
Bitcoin	1.65x	2.03x	Ordinary
Ethereum	1.21x	1.77x	Quiet
XRP	1.44x	1.81x	Quiet
BNB	1.02x	1.75x	Quiet
Solana	1.66x	1.57x	Ordinary
Dogecoin	0.72x	1.52x	Quiet
TRON	1.30x	1.43x	Quiet
Cardano	1.01x	1.90x	Quiet
Chainlink	1.12x	1.62x	Quiet
Bitcoin Cash	0.73x	1.69x	Quiet
Hedera	0.84x	1.51x	Quiet
Avalanche	0.70x	1.55x	Quiet
Litecoin	1.09x	1.64x	Quiet
Uniswap	0.50x	1.49x	Quiet
Polkadot	0.69x	1.50x	Quiet
Aave	0.92x	1.58x	Quiet
NEAR Protocol	0.61x	1.43x	Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC)	0.73x	1.60x	Quiet
Filecoin	1.41x	1.51x	Quiet

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for Chainlink

Questions about this page

Is 1.12x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Chainlink moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.