The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 February 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for January 2024, against 0.2% in December 2023. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $62,233.21 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.85% higher, and an hour later 1.65% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.68% of its price, against 1.23% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.16x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.19x, against a typical 2.55x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.16x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.09x.
What it means
Bitcoin advanced 1.65 percent in the hour after the release from its starting level of $62,233.21, with the high-to-low range expanding to 1.68 percent from 1.23 percent beforehand. The volatility ratio reached 2.16x in the quarter hour of the print, a touch above the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE releases since 2021, while the volume ratio of 2.19x fell short of the typical 2.55x. That combination left the reaction squarely in line with the event's historical profile.
The data arrived together with personal income, core PCE, and both initial and continued claims, so the measured response reflects the full bundle. The release fell 19 days before the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting and therefore outside the two-week window in which PCE prints have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x. Its own 2.16x ratio still exceeded the 1.81x median seen in the 51 releases that occurred farther from policy decisions.
Clometrix therefore classifies the move as ordinary for Bitcoin on PCE. The outcome illustrates that an individual release can generate volatility close to the long-term median even when timing relative to the Federal Reserve would normally point to a quieter response.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 1.04 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 2.16x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 62465.55 | 62215.21 | 62437.54 | 0.33% | 0.40% | 0.45% | 110 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 62662.59 | 62215.21 | 62572.02 | 0.54% | 0.71% | 0.62% | 481 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 62791.44 | 62215.21 | 62786.09 | 0.88% | 0.92% | 1.07% | 739 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 63040.00 | 62215.21 | 62762.54 | 0.84% | 1.31% | 1.21% | 1,431 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 63040.00 | 62215.21 | 62931.66 | 1.11% | 1.31% | 1.21% | 2,047 BTC |
| 1 hour | 63258.50 | 62215.21 | 63258.50 | 1.62% | 1.65% | 1.21% | 3,558 BTC |
| 2 hours | 63531.88 | 62215.21 | 63183.64 | 1.50% | 2.07% | 2.04% | 7,714 BTC |
| 4 hours | 63531.88 | 61501.00 | 61717.43 | -0.84% | 3.20% | 2.04% | 15,116 BTC |
| 6 hours | 63531.88 | 60364.70 | 61138.62 | -1.79% | 4.99% | 2.04% | 24,488 BTC |
| 8 hours | 63531.88 | 61501.00 | 61717.43 | -1.13% | 3.20% | 4.08% | 25,755 BTC |
| 12 hours | 63531.88 | 60364.70 | 61503.18 | -1.19% | 4.99% | 4.08% | 39,826 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.16x | 2.06x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.68x | 1.79x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 2.07x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.62x | 1.78x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.75x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.40x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| TRON | 2.29x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Cardano | 1.84x | 1.88x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.73x | 1.61x | Strong |
| Sui | 1.50x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.47x | 1.67x | Strong |
| Hedera | 1.25x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 2.21x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 1.19x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.98x | 1.74x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.20x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 2.02x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Aave | 1.85x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.98x | 1.37x | Strong |
| Aptos | 0.86x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 2.56x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.00x | 1.56x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.42x | 1.50x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.16x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.09x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.