The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 24 February 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for January 2023, against 0.2% in December 2022. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,642.25 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.34% lower, and an hour later 0.47% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.78% of its price, against 0.6% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.05x, against 1.80x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.58x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.05x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the January PCE release. The token stood at $1,642.25 at the 8:30 AM print, then declined 0.34 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.47 percent within the hour. Its high-to-low range reached 0.78 percent of spot in that first hour, up from 0.60 percent beforehand.
The volatility ratio of 2.05x remained near the 1.80x median observed across sixty-nine PCE releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 5.58x the normal quarter-hour level against a 2.15x event median, yet the price excursion stayed contained. The print arrived alongside the core PCE and personal income figures, so the measured response reflects their combined arrival. Traders preparing for the next PCE release can observe that the usual volume surge did not generate price movement beyond the event's established range.
This release fell twenty-five days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that sometimes heightens sensitivity. Across the record, PCE releases inside that window produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x, statistically indistinguishable from the 1.77x median recorded at other times.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.80x. This one was 1.13 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.80x. Thick line: this release, 2.05x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1642.39 | 1635.00 | 1636.58 | -0.35% | 0.45% | 0.18% | 4,891 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1642.39 | 1634.66 | 1636.49 | -0.35% | 0.47% | 0.38% | 10,215 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1642.39 | 1632.00 | 1635.01 | -0.44% | 0.63% | 0.38% | 17,109 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1642.39 | 1632.00 | 1636.64 | -0.34% | 0.63% | 0.38% | 19,200 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1642.39 | 1632.00 | 1635.24 | -0.43% | 0.63% | 0.55% | 25,149 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1642.39 | 1629.57 | 1634.50 | -0.47% | 0.78% | 0.60% | 36,446 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1642.39 | 1616.88 | 1620.66 | -1.33% | 1.55% | 0.95% | 71,426 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1642.39 | 1575.64 | 1593.06 | -3.09% | 4.06% | 0.95% | 207,224 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1642.39 | 1575.64 | 1594.65 | -2.98% | 4.06% | 1.12% | 238,376 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1654.76 | 1575.64 | 1593.06 | -3.70% | 4.78% | 1.08% | 259,188 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1642.39 | 1575.64 | 1605.69 | -2.28% | 4.06% | 1.20% | 345,803 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.10x | 2.06x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 2.05x | 1.79x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.37x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| BNB | 2.38x | 1.78x | Strong |
| Solana | 2.25x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 1.78x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 1.41x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.20x | 1.88x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.02x | 1.61x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.96x | 1.67x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 2.52x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 2.03x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 3.63x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 1.68x | 1.74x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 2.02x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.23x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.18x | 1.57x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.92x | 1.37x | Strong |
| Aptos | 2.68x | 1.70x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 1.93x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.03x | 1.56x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 1.29x | 1.50x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.05x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.80x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.