The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 March 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for February 2022, against 0.5% in January 2022. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,421.88 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.27% higher, and an hour later 0.48% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.29% of its price, against 0.64% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.11x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.80x, against a typical 2.11x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.11x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the data cluster that included the February PCE print of 0.6 percent. Its volatility ratio reached 2.11x in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM release, a level that sits just above the 1.80x median recorded across 69 PCE events since 2021. Volume expanded to 3.80x against the same benchmark of 2.15x.
The price opened the window at $3,421.88. It rose 0.27 percent in the first fifteen minutes before closing the hour 0.48 percent lower. The high-to-low range widened to 1.29 percent of spot from 0.64 percent in the prior hour. Those moves produced a volatility ratio only modestly above the event norm, consistent with the ordinary classification assigned to this release.
The print arrived 33 days before the next Federal Reserve decision. Releases inside the two-week window before policy meetings have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, nearly identical to the 1.77x median outside that window. This instance exceeded the non-window median yet remained within the typical band for the event itself.
Traders reviewing the record may note that an ordinary volatility outcome can still coincide with elevated volume. The data offer no basis for expecting a different magnitude on the next PCE release.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 1.19 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 2.11x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 3423.00 | 3417.38 | 3420.32 | -0.05% | 0.16% | 0.15% | 278 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 3438.44 | 3417.38 | 3438.42 | 0.48% | 0.61% | 0.41% | 4,202 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 3444.83 | 3417.38 | 3440.55 | 0.54% | 0.80% | 0.54% | 8,065 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 3444.83 | 3417.38 | 3431.26 | 0.27% | 0.80% | 0.54% | 11,820 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 3444.83 | 3417.38 | 3428.44 | 0.19% | 0.80% | 0.54% | 15,548 ETH |
| 1 hour | 3444.83 | 3400.65 | 3405.40 | -0.48% | 1.28% | 0.64% | 30,772 ETH |
| 2 hours | 3444.83 | 3335.60 | 3342.43 | -2.38% | 3.17% | 0.65% | 89,687 ETH |
| 4 hours | 3444.83 | 3290.65 | 3295.95 | -3.82% | 4.48% | 0.85% | 170,603 ETH |
| 6 hours | 3444.83 | 3261.35 | 3287.76 | -4.08% | 5.33% | 1.02% | 239,691 ETH |
| 8 hours | 3444.83 | 3290.65 | 3295.95 | -3.26% | 4.48% | 1.16% | 219,929 ETH |
| 12 hours | 3444.83 | 3261.35 | 3295.48 | -3.84% | 5.33% | 1.25% | 326,318 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.28x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 2.11x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.37x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.49x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.99x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.31x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.04x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.99x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.20x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.02x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 0.92x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.86x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.42x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.94x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.00x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.30x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.10x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.37x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.82x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.97x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.78x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.11x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.