The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 March 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for February 2022, against 0.5% in January 2022. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $47,293.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% higher, and an hour later 0.27% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.11% of its price, against 0.49% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.28x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.53x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.28x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted an ordinary reaction to the PCE release, rising 0.2 percent in the first fifteen minutes before finishing 0.27 percent lower after one hour. The hourly high-to-low range reached 1.11 percent of price, more than double the 0.49 percent recorded beforehand. Clometrix measured a volatility ratio of 2.28x against the 2.09x median across PCE events since 2021, while the volume ratio reached 3.53x compared with a typical 2.55x. The release came out 33 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision that has historically produced larger moves. Across the full set of 69 PCE releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio for Bitcoin stands at 2.09x. The outcome therefore aligned with the event's typical footprint once the accompanying data are taken into account.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.13 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 2.28x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 47303.96 | 47261.80 | 47284.49 | -0.02% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 34 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 47430.97 | 47261.80 | 47403.49 | 0.23% | 0.36% | 0.32% | 371 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 47529.20 | 47261.80 | 47501.63 | 0.44% | 0.56% | 0.43% | 814 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 47540.46 | 47261.80 | 47389.07 | 0.20% | 0.59% | 0.43% | 1,250 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 47540.46 | 47261.80 | 47395.76 | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.43% | 1,640 BTC |
| 1 hour | 47600.00 | 47073.89 | 47164.20 | -0.27% | 1.11% | 0.49% | 3,381 BTC |
| 2 hours | 47600.00 | 46230.00 | 46353.61 | -2.03% | 2.88% | 0.49% | 10,441 BTC |
| 4 hours | 47600.00 | 45873.37 | 45953.20 | -2.92% | 3.63% | 0.82% | 18,145 BTC |
| 6 hours | 47600.00 | 45595.28 | 45858.09 | -3.13% | 4.21% | 0.82% | 24,570 BTC |
| 8 hours | 47600.00 | 45873.37 | 45953.20 | -2.51% | 3.63% | 1.11% | 23,439 BTC |
| 12 hours | 47600.00 | 45200.00 | 45610.27 | -3.69% | 5.04% | 1.11% | 34,754 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.28x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 2.11x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.37x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.49x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.99x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.31x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.04x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.99x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.20x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.02x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 0.92x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.86x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.42x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.94x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.00x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.30x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.10x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.37x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.82x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.97x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.78x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.28x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.