The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 March 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for February 2024, against 0.4% in January 2024. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.43x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.38x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $70,021.11 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.2% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.42% of its price, against 0.66% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.43x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Quiet response despite bundled releases
Bitcoin registered a subdued reaction to the March 29 PCE print and its accompanying data. Volume rose just 1.38x against a typical 2.55x. The price remained flat fifteen minutes later and advanced only 0.2 percent within the hour. The hourly range narrowed to 0.42 percent from 0.66 percent beforehand.
Clometrix classifies the outcome as quiet for this event. The release arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE figures, yet the combined package failed to lift activity above the 1.5x threshold that marks a genuine response.
Timing relative to policy meetings
This PCE print fell 32 days before the May FOMC decision, outside the two-week window before a policy meeting in which such releases have historically produced larger Bitcoin moves. The median volatility ratio for PCE inside that window stands at 2.13x versus 1.81x elsewhere. The observed 1.43x reading therefore fell short even of the non-window benchmark. Distance from the next policy meeting continues to dampen price sensitivity.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.71 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.43x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 70028.10 | 69981.10 | 70028.10 | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 27 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 70194.02 | 69981.10 | 70163.46 | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.18% | 142 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 70194.02 | 69981.10 | 70084.99 | 0.09% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 213 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 70194.02 | 69973.05 | 70045.02 | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 297 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 70220.00 | 69973.05 | 70150.01 | 0.18% | 0.35% | 0.64% | 527 BTC |
| 1 hour | 70265.34 | 69973.05 | 70164.04 | 0.20% | 0.42% | 0.66% | 1,019 BTC |
| 2 hours | 70636.04 | 69973.05 | 70396.00 | 0.53% | 0.94% | 0.70% | 2,361 BTC |
| 4 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69396.11 | -0.90% | 2.30% | 1.07% | 7,380 BTC |
| 6 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69508.74 | -0.74% | 2.30% | 1.32% | 9,742 BTC |
| 8 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69396.11 | -0.66% | 2.30% | 1.70% | 11,779 BTC |
| 12 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69790.01 | -0.33% | 2.30% | 1.90% | 13,471 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.43x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.07x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.92x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.75x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.14x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.10x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.93x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.99x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.25x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.53x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.01x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.56x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 0.83x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.03x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.95x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.24x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.38x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.77x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.23x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 0.60x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.08x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.12x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.80x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.43x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.