How XRP reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 29 April 2019

Coin: Bitcoin Ethereum XRP All 8 coins

Published with later months. These figures were published together with later months in a single release, so the reaction shown belongs to all of them, not to this period alone.

The short answer

Hardly a reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, XRP's price swung 1.27 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For a PCE release, 1.81 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.25% higher.

1.27x

Quiet

Trading (volume ratio): 2.98x; usual for PCE: 1.95x
Price at 8:30 AM: $0.2930
15 minutes later: +0.06%
One hour later: +0.25%; range 1.71%, hour before 1.73%

XRP/USDT, 5 minutes candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open: 0.3010
Close: 0.2940
24h change: -2.38%
24h high: 0.3016
24h low: 0.2896
24h volume: 39.821M XRP

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 April 2019 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for February 2019, against -0.1% in January 2019. Prices are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

XRP's volatility ratio was 1.27x, against 1.81x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.98x, against a typical 1.95x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How XRP moved

XRP was at $0.2930 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.06% higher, and an hour later 0.25% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.71% of its price, against 1.73% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved XRP less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.60x across 16, against 1.93x across 50. This one came out 2 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 May rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.27x compares with 1.60x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 66 PCE releases since 2021, XRP's usual price swing is 1.81x. This one was 0.70 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.81x. Thick line: this release, 1.27x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	0.29321	0.29243	0.29303	0.01%	0.27%	0.18%	193,491 XRP
5 minutes	0.2933	0.29243	0.29285	-0.05%	0.30%	1.08%	448,536 XRP
10 minutes	0.29331	0.29243	0.29303	0.01%	0.30%	1.21%	667,488 XRP
15 minutes	0.29346	0.29243	0.29317	0.06%	0.35%	1.32%	837,822 XRP
30 minutes	0.29346	0.29203	0.29221	-0.27%	0.49%	1.53%	1.35M XRP
1 hour	0.29461	0.28959	0.29371	0.25%	1.70%	1.71%	4.941M XRP
2 hours	0.29479	0.28959	0.29397	0.33%	1.76%	2.20%	8.841M XRP
4 hours	0.29479	0.28959	0.2932	0.07%	1.76%	2.60%	12.371M XRP
6 hours	0.29479	0.28959	0.29277	-0.08%	1.76%	3.11%	15.211M XRP
8 hours	0.29958	0.28959	0.2932	-1.83%	3.33%	1.09%	21.498M XRP
12 hours	0.29502	0.28959	0.29401	0.35%	1.84%	3.25%	22.594M XRP

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for PCE	Reaction
Bitcoin	1.50x	2.03x	Quiet
Ethereum	2.90x	1.77x	Strong
XRP	1.27x	1.81x	Quiet
BNB	1.57x	1.75x	Ordinary
TRON	1.00x	1.43x	Quiet
Cardano	2.19x	1.90x	Ordinary
Chainlink	0.71x	1.62x	Quiet
Litecoin	2.13x	1.64x	Strong

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.

Every PCE release for XRP

Questions about this page

Is 1.27x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next PCE do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range XRP moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.