The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 27 November 2024 at 10:00 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for October 2024, against 0.2% in September 2024. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.26x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.15x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $94,833.42 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.13% lower, and an hour later 0.76% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.62% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.26x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the November 27 PCE release and the accompanying Personal Income and Core PCE prints. The volatility ratio reached only 1.26x against the 2.09x median recorded across 69 prior PCE events since 2021, while the volume ratio stood at 2.15x against a 2.55x typical reading. Both metrics fell below the 1.5x threshold that Clometrix treats as a non-reaction, confirming the market largely ignored the 0.3 percent October print.
Price action stayed contained. Bitcoin sat at $94,833.42 at the 10:00 AM release and moved just 0.13 percent lower fifteen minutes later before finishing 0.76 percent higher after an hour. The hour-after high-to-low range of 1.62 percent was double the 0.82 percent range seen in the prior hour, yet still modest by historical standards for this event.
Timing away from the Federal Reserve decision helps explain the muted response. This release arrived twenty days before the December 18 meeting, outside the two-week window where PCE prints have produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio versus 1.81x at other times. The observed 1.26x therefore underperformed even the lower baseline that applies to non-Fed-window releases.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.62 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.26x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 94885.00 | 94812.00 | 94815.72 | -0.02% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 32 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 94885.00 | 94634.85 | 94856.01 | 0.02% | 0.26% | 0.30% | 266 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 94890.00 | 94634.85 | 94827.38 | -0.01% | 0.27% | 0.36% | 506 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 94890.00 | 94500.01 | 94713.86 | -0.13% | 0.41% | 0.54% | 747 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 94890.00 | 94316.00 | 94550.07 | -0.30% | 0.60% | 0.68% | 1,405 BTC |
| 1 hour | 95850.00 | 94316.00 | 95556.01 | 0.76% | 1.60% | 0.82% | 4,086 BTC |
| 2 hours | 96333.10 | 94316.00 | 95689.19 | 0.89% | 2.09% | 1.55% | 7,822 BTC |
| 4 hours | 96539.33 | 94316.00 | 96119.51 | 1.34% | 2.30% | 2.15% | 12,177 BTC |
| 6 hours | 97208.21 | 94316.00 | 96482.75 | 1.71% | 2.98% | 2.15% | 16,381 BTC |
| 8 hours | 96539.33 | 92847.84 | 96119.51 | 2.39% | 3.82% | 1.62% | 18,888 BTC |
| 12 hours | 97208.21 | 94316.00 | 95699.79 | 0.91% | 2.98% | 2.66% | 25,216 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.26x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.98x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.95x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.93x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.06x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.02x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.43x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.31x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.33x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.09x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.56x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 1.71x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 0.67x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 1.27x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.05x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 3.04x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 0.88x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.62x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| Bittensor | 0.99x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.87x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 0.75x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.73x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.80x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.99x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.26x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.