Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.97x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.48x, against a typical 2.55x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $109,121.29 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.34% higher, and an hour later 0.06% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.6% of its price, against 0.42% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 September 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for August 2025, against 0.2% in July 2025. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.97x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.09x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded a strong reaction to the August PCE release, with volatility reaching 2.97x its typical quarter-hour level that day. Volume expanded to 4.48x, well above the 2.55x median for the event. The price rose 0.34 percent in the first fifteen minutes from its $109,121.29 starting point and held a 0.06 percent gain after one hour. The hourly range widened to 0.6 percent after the release compared with 0.42 percent beforehand.
This outcome stands out because the release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision. PCE prints in that window have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x, versus 1.81x at other times. The 2.97x reading here exceeded even those stronger near-decision episodes.
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021 the median Bitcoin volatility ratio stands at 2.09x. The current episode therefore represents a clear departure from the event's usual impact, driven by factors beyond proximity to policy meetings, as outsized moves can occur even when timing appears less sensitive.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 1.42 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 2.97x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 109144.42 | 108920.99 | 109111.77 | -0.01% | 0.20% | 0.11% | 152 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 109480.02 | 108920.99 | 109341.84 | 0.20% | 0.51% | 0.30% | 305 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 109579.00 | 108920.99 | 109353.16 | 0.21% | 0.60% | 0.30% | 449 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 109579.00 | 108920.99 | 109497.69 | 0.34% | 0.60% | 0.30% | 504 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 109579.00 | 108920.99 | 109372.68 | 0.23% | 0.60% | 0.30% | 642 BTC |
| 1 hour | 109579.00 | 108920.99 | 109183.63 | 0.06% | 0.60% | 0.42% | 871 BTC |
| 2 hours | 109779.73 | 108920.99 | 109083.45 | -0.03% | 0.78% | 0.53% | 2,028 BTC |
| 4 hours | 109779.73 | 108764.76 | 109518.18 | 0.36% | 0.92% | 0.98% | 3,181 BTC |
| 6 hours | 110300.00 | 108764.76 | 110192.13 | 0.97% | 1.39% | 0.98% | 4,251 BTC |
| 8 hours | 109779.73 | 108620.07 | 109518.18 | 0.00% | 1.06% | 0.90% | 5,759 BTC |
| 12 hours | 110300.00 | 108764.76 | 109590.42 | 0.43% | 1.39% | 1.07% | 6,133 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.97x | 2.06x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 4.65x | 1.79x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 6.07x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 3.37x | 1.78x | Strong |
| Solana | 4.27x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 4.12x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 4.79x | 1.42x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 4.45x | 1.88x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 4.06x | 1.61x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 3.57x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.78x | 1.67x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 3.82x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 1.77x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 4.32x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Gram | 4.02x | 1.29x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 4.05x | 1.74x | Exceptional |
| Uniswap | 4.56x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 4.03x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 4.35x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Bittensor | 3.49x | 1.68x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 3.58x | 1.37x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 4.04x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 3.53x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.71x | 1.56x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 4.06x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.97x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 2.09x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.