The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 October 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for September 2024, against 0.1% in August 2024. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.76x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.90x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,635.65 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.05% higher, and an hour later 0.46% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.79% of its price, against 0.45% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 7 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.76x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum showed little movement after the Personal Consumption Expenditures release and the cluster of data that arrived with it. The price stood at $2,635.65 at the moment of publication. Fifteen minutes later the change was just 0.05 percent higher, while the hour later reading showed a 0.46 percent decline. The hour after the release produced a high-to-low range of 0.79 percent of the price, only modestly wider than the 0.45 percent range recorded in the hour before.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 0.76x for Ethereum on this release, well below the 1.80x median for PCE events since 2021. Volume rose by a factor of 0.90x against the event norm of 2.15x. Both ratios sit below the 1.5x threshold that marks any meaningful reaction.
The release occurred seven days before the Federal Reserve decision on 7 November. Pre-decision PCE prints have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum across eighteen observations, compared with 1.77x at other times. Traders may note that a cluster of simultaneous releases, including personal income, core PCE, and jobless claims, did not generate the volatility usually associated with PCE. The record for this event type supplies no basis for expecting similar quiet conditions at the next release.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.43 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 0.76x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2636.80 | 2633.03 | 2633.61 | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 729 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2639.50 | 2632.21 | 2638.02 | 0.09% | 0.28% | 0.32% | 1,586 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2639.60 | 2632.21 | 2636.70 | 0.04% | 0.28% | 0.40% | 2,269 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2639.60 | 2632.21 | 2637.01 | 0.05% | 0.28% | 0.40% | 2,585 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2641.00 | 2632.21 | 2638.78 | 0.12% | 0.33% | 0.45% | 4,951 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2641.00 | 2620.21 | 2623.62 | -0.46% | 0.79% | 0.45% | 11,382 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2641.00 | 2562.82 | 2566.81 | -2.68% | 2.96% | 0.81% | 72,257 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2641.00 | 2541.23 | 2551.66 | -3.29% | 3.78% | 0.88% | 146,894 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2641.00 | 2512.00 | 2523.40 | -4.45% | 4.88% | 0.89% | 194,816 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2648.50 | 2541.23 | 2551.66 | -3.15% | 4.05% | 1.57% | 196,149 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2641.00 | 2503.00 | 2529.64 | -4.19% | 5.23% | 1.64% | 276,523 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.96x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.76x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.79x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.07x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.81x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.68x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.04x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.79x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.02x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.43x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.01x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.10x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.43x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 1.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.46x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.75x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.53x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 1.16x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.14x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.97x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 0.99x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.77x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.07x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.51x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.76x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.