The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 February 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for January 2025, against 0.3% in December 2024. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,124.65 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.46% higher, and an hour later 1.96% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.12% of its price, against 2.1% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.15x, against 1.79x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.75x, against a typical 2.13x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.15x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum posted an ordinary reaction to the January Personal Consumption Expenditures release. The 0.4 percent month-over-month print coincided with Personal Income and Core PCE data at the same instant, and the coin rose 1.46 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1.96 percent within the hour. Its hourly range reached 3.12 percent of spot, compared with 2.1 percent beforehand.
Clometrix records a volatility ratio of 2.15x for this event, above the 1.80x median across 69 PCE releases since 2021 yet still within the range classified as ordinary. Volume expanded to 3.75x against the 2.15x typical benchmark. The release fell eighteen days before the March Federal Open Market Committee decision, outside the two-week window where prior PCE prints have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x.
The move therefore exceeded what timing alone would have suggested while remaining consistent with the event's overall distribution. Traders reviewing the next PCE release may note that distance from a policy meeting did not mute Ethereum's response in this instance, although the record supplies no basis for assuming any particular magnitude on future prints.
How it compares
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.79x. This one was 1.20 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.79x. Thick line: this release, 2.15x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2164.99 | 2123.78 | 2146.35 | 1.01% | 1.90% | 0.24% | 10,831 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2164.99 | 2123.78 | 2147.18 | 1.05% | 1.90% | 0.59% | 22,587 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2164.99 | 2123.78 | 2150.01 | 1.18% | 1.90% | 0.96% | 31,685 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2164.99 | 2123.78 | 2155.59 | 1.44% | 1.90% | 0.96% | 37,771 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2164.99 | 2123.78 | 2151.71 | 1.26% | 1.90% | 1.55% | 49,215 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2190.10 | 2123.78 | 2166.24 | 1.92% | 3.03% | 2.07% | 79,335 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2224.98 | 2123.78 | 2223.89 | 4.46% | 4.55% | 2.07% | 146,079 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2246.30 | 2123.78 | 2234.41 | 4.91% | 5.45% | 2.16% | 217,057 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2255.13 | 2123.78 | 2230.99 | 4.77% | 5.82% | 3.52% | 279,476 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2246.30 | 2105.38 | 2234.41 | 4.02% | 6.27% | 8.28% | 355,475 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2255.13 | 2123.78 | 2221.42 | 4.36% | 5.82% | 8.28% | 363,518 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.81x | 2.06x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 2.15x | 1.79x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 2.50x | 1.70x | Strong |
| BNB | 2.05x | 1.78x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.80x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 2.36x | 1.51x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.72x | 1.42x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 2.51x | 1.88x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 2.62x | 1.61x | Strong |
| Sui | 2.99x | 1.52x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.93x | 1.67x | Strong |
| Hedera | 2.69x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 2.34x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 2.14x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 2.41x | 1.29x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 2.43x | 1.74x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.43x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.48x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.27x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 2.87x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.33x | 1.37x | Strong |
| Aptos | 1.91x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 2.35x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.51x | 1.56x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 2.64x | 1.50x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.15x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.79x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.