The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 February 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for January 2022, against 0.6% in December 2021. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $39,350.05 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.35% higher, and an hour later 0.25% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.53% of its price, against 1.92% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.72x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.90x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.72x compares with 1.81x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.
What it means
Bitcoin's reaction to the 25 February 2022 PCE release was ordinary by the standards of this event. The volatility ratio reached 1.72x, below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Price rose 0.35 percent in the first fifteen minutes and finished the hour 0.25 percent lower, while the high-to-low range narrowed to 1.53 percent from 1.92 percent beforehand. Volume rose to 2.90x, only modestly above the typical 2.55x.
The release arrived alongside Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Core PCE, so the measured move reflects the combined impact. It fell 18 days before the March FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger Bitcoin reactions. PCE prints inside that window show a median volatility ratio of 2.13x, compared with 1.81x at other times. The 1.72x reading here sits close to the 1.81x benchmark for non-proximate releases.
Traders preparing for the next PCE print can note that distance from an FOMC decision has coincided with smaller volatility ratios in the record since 2021. This release produced no departure from that pattern.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.85 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.72x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 39350.05 | 39293.68 | 39315.78 | -0.09% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 43 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 39654.06 | 39293.68 | 39625.27 | 0.69% | 0.91% | 0.29% | 725 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 39683.53 | 39293.68 | 39602.31 | 0.64% | 0.98% | 0.40% | 1,136 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 39683.53 | 39293.68 | 39489.11 | 0.35% | 0.98% | 0.46% | 1,394 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 39683.53 | 39243.92 | 39359.98 | 0.03% | 1.11% | 0.61% | 2,091 BTC |
| 1 hour | 39683.53 | 39079.59 | 39251.60 | -0.25% | 1.52% | 1.91% | 3,248 BTC |
| 2 hours | 39683.53 | 38700.00 | 39330.73 | -0.05% | 2.48% | 2.61% | 8,586 BTC |
| 4 hours | 39683.53 | 38700.00 | 39152.62 | -0.50% | 2.48% | 3.72% | 13,398 BTC |
| 6 hours | 39683.53 | 38537.91 | 38838.60 | -1.32% | 2.89% | 3.76% | 17,582 BTC |
| 8 hours | 39683.53 | 38030.00 | 39152.62 | 2.79% | 4.17% | 2.60% | 24,928 BTC |
| 12 hours | 40348.45 | 38537.91 | 39700.00 | 0.88% | 4.49% | 3.76% | 29,236 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.72x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.19x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 2.01x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.45x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 2.19x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 1.72x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 1.39x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.92x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.45x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.26x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.66x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 1.89x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.64x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Shiba Inu | 1.71x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 1.23x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.58x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 2.16x | 1.58x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.21x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.85x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.01x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.20x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.72x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.